Avalanche forecast

Provo

Issued Feb 14, 2025valid to Feb 15, 2025Utah Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is HIGH at the mid and upper elevations where heavy snowfall and strong winds have created dangerous avalanche conditions. Some low-elevation slopes also have a HIGH danger where avalanches that start thousands of feet above you may reach valley floors.

It is possible some areas may reach an EXTREME danger rating this morning.

Avalanche problems

Wind Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Likely
Size
3
Strong winds have created sensitive wind drifts on all aspects at the mid and upper elevations. Watch for cracking as an indication of sensitive conditions, such as the photo below from Dave Kelly's field day in the Ant Knolls on Thursday. Cornices have also grown large and sensitive and may break much further than expected.

On northerly-facing slopes, any avalanche involving wind-drifted snow may step down to a deeply-buried persistent weak layer.
Storm Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Likely
Size
3
The storm snow will be reactive today, failing within density inversions or at the interface with the old snow surface.

On northerly-facing slopes, any avalanche involving storm snow may step down to a deeply-buried persistent weak layer.
Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
3
Two buried weak layers of faceted snow in the snowpack continue to be triggered by skiers and riders, with the most recent avalanche occurring on Thursday in Butler Basin in the Salt Lake mountains.

The upper weak layer is buried around 1–2.5 feet deep, formed during the cold weather at the end of January.

The lower weak layer, near the ground, formed in November/December and has caused many large avalanches this season. This layer is most likely to be triggered in steep, thin snowpack areas, and repeater slopes—places that have previously avalanched - such as Thursday's avalanche in Butler Basin. Avalanches up to 1–3+ feet deep are possible.

These two weak layers are primarily found on north-facing slopes, with some east and west-facing pockets at mid and upper elevations, with widespread spatial variability. Heavy snowfall and strong winds will overload these weak layers, with large, destructive avalanches possible.

Recent Activity

There were no reported avalanches on Thursday, but to our north in the Salt Lake mountains, there was a close call in an avalanche in Butler Basin on Thursday involving two partial burials [photo below]. The avalanche was 2.5 feet deep and 150 feet wide, breaking down into old faceted snow. This was yet another repeater slope that had avalanched on January 12.

Dave Kelly was traveling in the Ant Knolls on Thursday and found sensitive shallow wind drifted snow. You can read his usual excellent observation.

Observations and Avalanches

Avalanche Warning

What

The avalanche danger for the warning area is HIGH today and may rise to EXTREME in some areas this weekend.

When

Very dangerous avalanche conditions are expected through the weekend.

Where

For all the mountains of Utah and Southeast Idaho, including the Wasatch Range, Bear River Range, Uinta Mountains, Wasatch Plateau, Manti Skyline, the La Sal Mountains, the Tushar Range....

Impacts

Heavy snow and drifting by strong winds have created widespread areas of unstable snow and very dangerous avalanche conditions at all elevations. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely. People should avoid travel in all avalanche terrain and keep out of avalanche runouts. This means you should stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

Special Announcement

A preliminary report on Saturday’s avalanche fatality in the East Bowl of Silver Fork can be found [HERE]. We hope to have the full report out very soon.
The full report on the February 3rd avalanche fatality on Monte Cristo (Ogden Mountains) is published [HERE].
The accident report detailing the full and partial burial close call in Dutch Draw (Park City ridgeline) from Saturday is available [HERE].

Snow and Weather

This Morning: Temperatures are in the 20's F and winds are from the south/southwest, gusting in the 40's mph along exposed mid and upper elevation ridgelines. As of 6 am, 24-hour snow totals are 20" of snow containing 2.75" of water.

Today: The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning most of the mountains in the state. Today's snowfall arrives on a southwest flow that favors the Provo-area mountains, with 8-14" of snow expected by sunset. Temperatures will rise into the upper 20's and low 30's F and south/southwest winds will remain moderate to strong at the mid and upper elevations. Today's rain/snow line will hover around 6,000'

The flow switches to the northwest this evening, a setup that isn't as favorable for the Provo mountains, although we should pick up a few additional inches of snow overnight. Snow will continue through Saturday, followed by a brief break Sunday morning, with another storm entering the region Sunday afternoon and into Monday. The pattern appears to remain active.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures