Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

New snow today will add stress to an existing weak layer buried 1-3' down. The added weight may make triggering an avalanche on this layer possible today, especially above 8,000'. If new snow and wind exceed the forecasted amounts of 4-6", expect avalanche conditions to become more dangerous, though natural avalanches will remain unlikely. Keep an eye on the weather and a closer eye on the terrain and snowpack that you are riding. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The stout crust and facet layers that formed and were buried following St Patrick's Day will begin to be tested today. This weak interface seems to have become less reactive over the past two days of warm temperatures and sunshine but caution in steep terrain is advisable.  Avalanche activity on this crust was most reactive around 8,000 and 9,500' on east aspects with many remotely triggered D1-2 slides observed in the Tetons and Greys zones. The avalanches were to some degree linked to wind-loading so it's hard to rule  out further load on other aspects serving as the trigger.  This layer is currently 2-3' down, deeper on the west side of the Tetons and Palisades areas. This increased depth makes this layer more stubborn but also more consequential if triggered. There are a number of question marks regarding this layer and interface which makes today (and this weekend) a good time to be conservative in the terrrain until this layer shows it's true colors.

     

    (3/28/2023)

    4 avalanches were noted in Teton Canyon on 3/27. These natural avalanches showed wide propagation and were large enough to injure or bury a person. 

Avalanche Discussion

Warm temps yesterday dampened snow and made yet another crust  to deal with today. The settlement and melt (up to 3 inches at some weather stations yesterday) helped to lock down the upper snowpack in the lower and warmer elevations. Other colder and higher areas, such as those that would make for better skiing and riding conditions today, settled and melted less and therefore may remain more reactive today.  It's tempting to think that low avalanche danger exists now due to the settlement and time lapsed since those natural and remotely triggered avalanches occurred three to four days ago, but several factors work against that assumption. The wide variability in the upper snowpack, the increasingly volatile nature of these Pacific weather systems, combined with reduced visibility, create the kind of conditions where a wait and see approach seems right.  Stepping out into big terrain seems like it should wait a while.

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