Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Very dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist as back-to-back storms have brought over 3 feet of snow to the mountains over the last three days.  Human-triggered avalanches are very likely with some of these avalanches capable of being large, destructive, and not survivable. Traveling in and around avalanche terrain is not recommended. 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Heavy snowfall and winds have loaded slopes over the last three days with close to 3" of snow water equivalent.  This significant loading will continue to stress facets and depth hoar that continues to linger near the ground on many slopes. These persistent slab avalanches are likely at all elevations and could be very large and unsurvivable running long distances well into the flats as it takes with it most of the season's snowpack and is able to propagate widely across the slopes and terrain features. You can trigger one of the avalanches from a distance away or the flats below.  Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Over three feet of snow and winds during the storm over the last three days have created dangerous storm slabs at all elevations.  These slabs will grow in size at upper elevations on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. Over the last several days these slabs have not been bonding well to the old existing snow surface interface which consisted of crusts and near surface facets. With brief lulls and changing temperatures during the storms, and periods of graupel falling from the sky, we may see storm slabs running on density changes within the new snow. These storm slabs will be dangerous on their own however, a more likely scenario is that these storm slabs on the surface are going to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche. 

    With the storm exiting right side up, you may encounter loose snow sluffs in steep terrain, that can grow in size as it fans out entraining more snow.  This problem will become more of a concern for Friday, with the sun reemerging and temperatures warming.  However, if the sun does pop out today expect to see loose snow avalanches in steep terrain around rock bands. 

Avalanche Discussion

Over the last three days, we've picked up 39" of snow and 2.95" of snow water equivalent (SWE). Westerly winds during the bulk of the storm have been moderate to strong, but have calmed down yesterday afternoon and continue to remain light today out of the northwest.  It's a frigid start to the morning with temperatures below 0 F at all elevations. Light flurries with not much accumulation is expected today. Although not part of the forecast zone, reports from Santa Fe are similar snow totals to what we've seen up here to the north.   

I've let the avalanche warning expire this morning as peak instability most likely happened Wednesday morning when we saw 1 to 2" an hour snowfall rates. However, very dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist. NW winds will remain light, but any uptick in winds will easily transport the abundance of snow that's on the surface.  This storm came in right side up, with the first storm coming in warmer and denser than the last pulse of snow yesterday which was low-density blower powder.  Observations during the storm period are of many slopes relieving themselves naturally, with some larger natural avalanches observed at all elevations.  Visibility has been very limited during the storm, but I'd expect once conditions improve Friday, we'll see a widespread natural avalanche cycle.

Prior to this last round of snow, we saw three weeks of mainly high pressure with only small storms bringing minimal snow.  Cold temperatures and a still relatively shallow snowpack on many slopes didn't allow facets and depth hoar near the ground to heal and strengthen.  This was especially present, below treeline where some northerly slopes consisted of facets throughout the snowpack.  These weak layers have been stressed from this latest round of significant loading and are going to need time to adjust.  Solar aspects during this time period formed crusts from warmer temperatures and the intense sun we see here at our southerly latitude.  We've been observing faceted crusts closer to the surface, which will be more of a concern now that we've added a cohesive slab on top. 

 

 

 

 

 

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