Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Use caution on steep slopes below ridgelines at upper elevations where you find new or recently drifted snow.  There's a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the weather forecast over the 24 hours.  If you find more new snow and/or more snow being transported along ridgelines, be prepared to step back to lower angled and more sheltered slopes. Travel carefully anywhere low snow cover exists. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Recent mild temperatures should limit the amount of snow available for transport in the near treeline elevation band.  At higher elevations with slightly cooler temperatures, you may find wind slabs that are relatively easier to trigger than at mid-elevations, especially if they've layered over weak near surface snow (facets).  This combination is most likely to exist above 5500' and on northerly aspects. 

    If you're traveling at higher elevations on Sunday, test the bond of the recent snow to the old snow on smaller test slopes before committing to more consequential terrain.  While recent wind slabs are likely becoming stubborn to trigger, continue to look for signs of instability like shooting cracks. You may find thicker drifts of wind-stiffened snow well below ridgelines due to the recent strong to extreme winds.  With many exposed or barely hidden obstacles like rocks and stumps, make sure to consider the consequences of a small avalanche raking you through rough terrain.  

    Snow levels will stick around 3500-4500' over the next 24 hours.  You may encounter small wet loose avalanches or more likely rollerballs at mid-elevations that experience oscillating snow levels.  

    Example of a small pocket of reactive snow near ridgeline. Use small test slopes as you travel to check for cracking and unstable drifts.

    Photo: Brooke Maushund

Avalanche Discussion

Roughly 6" of new snow fell through Friday evening with strong to extreme SW winds in the Hurricane Ridge area.   On Saturday occasional light snow or rain at lower elevations, another round of moderate SW winds, and temperatures rising to near the freezing mark rounded out the weather at Hurricane Ridge.  Also on Saturday, NPS staff found that the new snow had drifted in places up to up 10" below ridgelines.  Snow surfaces were becoming moist and limiting the amount of snow available for transport.  Instability flags like shooting cracks were not observed while traveling through wind-drifted snow.  One very small (D0.5) wind slab avalanche was intentionally triggered on a West facing slope and did not travel far downslope.  With the warm-up, roller balls released on steep slopes above the Hurricane Ridge road but no wet loose avalanches were recorded.  

NWAC Observer Sam Luthy was out in the Hurricane Ridge area on Thursday 2/2 and found similar snowpack conditions and structures as the last weekend in January.  Southerly aspects with snow had a stout supportable crust with the crust becoming more variable on E-W aspects.  Steeper southerlies had low or no snow cover.  Cornice lines have been trimmed back during this stretch.  Northerly aspects continued to feature a facet/crust combination in the top 1' (30cm) that was weaker than last week, something to keep an eye on as we add more snow.  Travel continued to be challenging at times due to firm crusts and/or low snow travel hazards. 

2022-2023 Forecast Schedule

NWAC will issue an avalanche forecast every Friday, Saturday and Sunday and every holiday mid-week day the Hurricane Ridge Road is open from December-early April.  We will issue Avalanche Watches or Warnings when conditions warrant.  New for this season, we will not update the non-holiday midweek discussion.  Our mountain weather forecasts will continue to cover the Olympics and are issued twice a day through late April.  If you have questions or feedback, please contact us at [email protected] and [email protected]. 

If you're out in the snow, share your observations with us and your local backcountry community.

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