Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger should be minimal other than in wind-exposed terrain. Steer around steep, consequential slopes you think hold more than a few inches of wind-drifted snow. Low snow cover, crusty surfaces, and old avalanche debris are the greatest hazards you will deal with in sheltered terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    If you were to find an avalanche on Wednesday, it would be in wind-loaded terrain at upper elevations. The weather forecast is only calling for a few inches of new snow and lower wind speeds, but more of either weather input would bump up avalanche danger at mid-elevations as well. 

    Look for deeper drifts as you gain elevation. If you find more than a few inches of wind-drifted snow, use small slope tests and hand pits to gauge reactivity. Take your time moving into steep terrain that might hold a pocket of wind slab.

     

    (3/8/2023)

    Example of smooth wind slab on the left and scoured snow on the right.

Avalanche Discussion

Observers found little in the way of wind slab on Tuesday. A few wind-loaded features would produce cracking and shed small blocks when kicked, but slab formation was too isolated to be a problem in the Baker Backcountry. Part of the reason is wind speeds were lower than forecast on Tuesday. There also isn’t much snow available for transport on windward slopes. Many were previously stripped of loose snow or capped with a sun crust that kept loose snow below it locked down. Locations farther east in the zone or upper elevations may hold larger, more meaningful slabs, but there were no observations on Jan 1st or 2nd from those areas. Be ready to choose your own adventure if heading to less traveled terrain.

Maybe the most notable observation was that of surface facets that formed with clear skies Monday night. They were found at 5000’ on all aspects. There is a decent chance they will get capped and preserved by the few inches of snow that fell today - and the few more forecast for tomorrow. While it’s hard to say these small, weak facets will be a problem down the road, they will be in the back of our minds with bigger storms on tap for the end of the week.

A mix of dust on crust and supportable sun crust top the snowpack. While initially soft, the wet snow surface buried on Dec 30th is now quite frozen. Below the new snow, all layers are well-bonded and consist of crusts, melt forms, or rounded grains. Snowpits at mid and upper elevations have repeatedly shown a well-consolidated snowpack with no layers of concern.

Regions covered