Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The primary avalanche problem remains for the potential of avalanches breaking 2 to 3 feet deep on persistent weak layers such as buried surface hoar. Avalanche activity on this weak layer has been sporadic and difficult to predict. For example, yesterday some professionals in Aspen were digging a snowpit to look for the surface hoar, and as they were stepping away from their snowpit, they remotely triggered a large avalanche on the slope next to them. Secondary avalanche concerns include the potential for falling cornices, and loose wet avalanches on steep sunny slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    A new round of weak layers was buried on February 2nd. These weak layers consist of widespread surface hoar and facets on most east, north, and west-facing slopes, and along with some faceted crusts on higher elevation southerly aspects. Slabs about 2 to 3 feet thick over these weak layers are becoming more stubborn, but can still be triggered by skiers and riders. This avalanche problem can be remotely triggered from flat terrain, or may propagate further than expected.  Shooting cracks or collapses are a clear sign of danger, but these obvious signs of instability will not always show themselves before an avalanche releases.  There is isolated potential to trigger older, larger slabs on weak layers deeper in the snowpack, most likely from shallow terrain features or step-down avalanches.  

    You can reliably avoid trouble on terrain with slope angles less than 30 degrees that are free from overhead steep terrain. Lower elevation southerly aspects offer safer options for steep terrain.  

     

    This avalanche appears to have been remotely triggered, or ran naturally, in Red Lady Gades on Friday. 

Avalanche Discussion

Our most recent avalanche activity has included cornices falling and small loose wet avalanches. A large cornice fell on Mt Owen early Saturday morning. While many other cornices have fallen in recent days. Such as on Afley and Yogies. Some of the falling cornices have triggered slab avalanches below like this avalanche on Carbonate Hill, or these in Redwell. For slab avalanches not necessarily triggered by cornice fall, there was a cycle of natural avalanches that ran on wind-loaded terrain features, mainly above 11,000ft, between about last Wednesday and last Friday. 

While it would be unfortunate to get hit by a falling cornice today, that potential hazard is obvious when you look up and see a big hanging cornice above you. The potentially deadly hazard that isn't obvious, is for persistent slabs releasing on buried surface hoar. The randomness of avalanche release on this layer and the difficulty in predicting where those avalanches will release, make this potential avalanche problem scary. Our avalanche database is full of avalanche activity on this interface since it was buried in early February. 

Looking around the range yesterday afternoon, it was common to see small loose wet avalanches on steep sunny slopes. Many of those had released below rock bands. With another warm and sunny day coming up we can expect more of the same. 

There is a major winter storm on the horizon. The avalanche danger will begin increasing on Monday and currently looks like it will rise to HIGH avalanche avalanche danger early Tuesday Morning. Natural avalanche activity will become possible on Monday, with a more widespread natural avalanche cycle occurring on Monday Night and/or Tuesday. Hopefully, this storm produces as forecasted and flushes the lingering surface hoar issues. 

 

 

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