Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous conditions still remain at upper elevations as more light snow and wind comes in on Friday. You can trigger slab avalanches in recent snow that fell on Wednesday. There's still a chance that you could triger very large and dangerous avalanches on deeper weak layers in the eastern portion of the zone. Minimize your exposure to big avalanche paths and start zones while the new snow adjusts and stick to lower-angled and supported slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Storm slabs built rapidly on Wednesday, with over a foot of new snow near Washington Pass. Avalanches may be easier to trigger and bigger at upper elevations and on leeward slopes where the wind formed deeper drifts. If you find signs of instability like shooting cracks, steer away from steep slopes. Small test slopes and quick, informal tests can give you a good idea of how easily the snow will slide.

     East of Washington Pass, avalanches in storm slabs could step down to more deeply buried weak layers and become very large and dangerous. Manage this risk by sticking to lower-angled slopes and leave a large buffer of terrian between you and slopes where avalanches could start or run down from overhead. 

    (1/18/2024)

    Observers reported widespread cracking and avalanches in the storm snow on 1/17. Delancey Ridge, SE

    Photo: Will Govus

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    We've received reports of whumphing collapses as recently as Tuesday, with a few 'sapling shakers' on an ESE aspect at 6,200ft near Varden Creek. If you trigger these avalanches, they would be surprising, and they can break widely across terrain features. Red flag signs of danger like shooting cracks and whumphing collapses should be heeded. The problematic snowpack structure is a series of crusts and weak layers buried in December, now in the middle to upper third of the snowpack. It's more problematic in areas with a shallower snowpack from about Cutthroat drainage and east. 

    To be safe, you can choose well-supported and lower-angle slopes for travel. Stop and regroup in safer areas, well away from and out from under potential runout zones of larger slopes. 

    (1/12/2024)

    Natural avalanches on Tamarack Peak, near Harts Pass. These likely occurred Jan 11th with northwest winds. We don't know exactly which layer these avalanches ran on, but they look suspiciously like persistent slab avalanches. E-SE, 7200ft

    Photo: NCH

Avalanche Discussion

On Wednesday, observers in the Cutthroat Creek and Delancey Ridge areas reported small, widespread, slab avalanches in the new snow on almost all slopes steeper than 30 degrees. They reported a total of 1 foot of new snow by mid-afternoon, with periods of snowfall exceeding 1"/hr.

Between January 8th and 12th, storm totals were around 2 feet for much of the zone. On the 16th, an observer reported 'sapling shaking' collapses on an ESE aspect at 6,200ft near Varden Creek. He dug down and identified the weak layer over 2ft down as soft, sugary grains beneath a crust from mid-December. On the 12th, an NWAC observer recorded recent wind slab avalanches, one of which may have stepped down to a weaker layer near Goat Peak. Earlier in the week,  multiple parties reported triggering small avalanches in recent storm snow and fresh drifts, and natural avalanches ran with strong northwest winds. Some of these may have stepped down to deeper weak layers, especially near Harts Pass and east. On the 10th, observers reported several large, natural avalanches over 2 feet deep near Cutthroat Lake (NE, ~6,800ft) that may have run on a crust from December 30th. 

You may find up to 6 feet of snow on the ground at upper elevations near Washington Pass, with half that much in the mountains near Mazama. Several decomposing crusts and layers of sugary facets developed throughout December. In some locations, these layers present as individual layers; in others, they all meld together. Near and west of the Cascade crest, the snowpack is deeper, has less weak layers, and the crusts are typically thicker and more stout.

If you're in the mountains, please let us know what you find.

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