Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering an avalanche in the lower snowpack on steep slopes remains unlikely yet not impossible.  Early season, low coverage compounds trauma potential if caught in an avalanche. The weakest snow can be found on rocky North aspects. Use caution on slopes steeper than 35 degrees on all aspects, especially in shallow areas where triggering is more likely. 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Poor snowpack structure still exists, especially near the ground where facets that formed in November are variable in strength and are slow to heal or bond---like sugar or sand.

    It would not be impossible to trigger an avalanche in steep (greater than 35 degrees) terrain, especially on northern aspects where the snow is over rocks. 

    You may not see any warning signs like cracking or collapsing. Your best way to manage this avalanche problem is to avoid terrain that is rocky and steeper than 35 degrees. The video to the right, highlights where you are most likely to find a persistent slab avalanche.

     

Avalanche Discussion

Avoiding steep rocky terrain is the safest bet right now until we get more snow, and the snowpack has some time to adjust to a new load. The current snowpack structure is gaining strength yet still weak, especially at the bottom, and may not support a heavy future load. We are all praying for more snow, but many of us would put money on avalanches if we got a foot or more right now.

Low chances of triggering an avalanche right now do not mean it can't happen.  Don't throw caution to the wind because the danger rating is green. Continue good travel protocols in the mountains in case you find a shallow spot that is easy to trigger a persistent slab avalanche. The worst part is that the snowpack could fail at the base, which could be rocks and drag you through them.  

Thanks to those sharing your observations this season! We have a brand new observation platform as well as a monthly drawing for gear and other prizes. Check out the observation page here. Have you been out in the mountains and want to submit an observation of your own? Submitting an observation improves your skills, informs other users, and benefits avalanche forecasts. Simple photos highlighting conditions are very helpful.