Northern New Mexico

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist as cohesive slabs of snow rest on top of weak and faceted snow below. You can easily trigger avalanches big enough to bury you on persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack or on the ground.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees paying attention to recent natural avalanches on similar slopes and obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses. Sticking to lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain without steep slopes above you will provide safer skiing and riding options.    

The stretch of moderate to strong winds we've had over the last week is finally coming to an end, with warmer and calmer weather forecasted over the next couple of days.  Since January 4th, we've seen elevated avalanche danger as snow and wind have formed cohesive slabs on top of a weak faceted snowpack that formed during the dry period of December and early January.  Natural and human-triggered avalanches have been observed almost every day during this time frame at all elevations on west to north through southeast aspects. Avalanche conditions have been very slow to decrease as slabs have continued to remain reactive with winds over the last several and weak layers continue to be incredibly fragile and widespread.  

The main concern continues to be persistent slab avalanches with avalanches failing on weak faceted snow that formed in the shallow snowpack that existed before storms in January.  These weak layers are widespread and everywhere across all elevations and most aspects.  What's changing is the overlying slabs on top. Below treeline the, the slabs have been settling (settled 7" over the last 4 days at Poco Wx Station) and stiffening into more cohesive slabs.  Weak layers at these lower elevations are still very easy to impact and in travels we're getting widespread collapsing and shooting cracks. Conditions are not as hare-trigger as they were a couple of days ago, but any avalanche triggered is likely to fail on or near the ground taking with it most of the seasons snowpack.  Yesterday we got a small steep cutbank to slide above a road cut, which put a 5-foot debris pile on the road.  Even a smaller avalanche can could bury you in a terrain trap or push you over a cliff.    

In above treeline terrain, moderate to strong winds over the last week have stripped and scoured some slopes at upper elevations and loaded and pressed other slopes into harder slabs, with breakable wind crusts on others. You may find and be able to trigger shallow stubborn wind slabs on northerly and east aspects above treeline but the bigger concern continues to be triggering a larger persistent slab avalanche.  With thicker and stiffer slabs, it may take finding that "sweet spot" on the margins of the slab or near rock outcroppings where the overlying slab is thinner.  It may not be the first person on the slope to trigger an avalanche and hard slabs can break in unpredictable ways, oftentimes well above you.  Signs of instability like audible collapses and shooting, will not be as evident and give you a false sense of security until it's too late.  Avalanches at upper elevations will be large and may not be survivable  

Near treeline terrain is a transition zone where conditions seem ripe for triggering a large persistent slab avalanche. Winds over the last week have drifted snow into more cohesive slabs and loading slopes on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features, but weak layers are easier to impact than above treeline terrain.    

With dangerous avalanche conditions continuing to persist, the one tool we have to manage avalanches is terrain selection.  Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential today, avoiding being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees. Heed the warning signs of loud audible collapses and realize that you can trigger avalanches that break well above you.  For me, I'm still not stepping out into steeper terrain and considering every slope guilty of being able to avalanche until proven otherwise.