Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Older large slabs on atypical aspects will be stiffer than the low-density snow on the surface. You can still trigger them on a steep, convex rollover below recently formed cornices or where the snowpack looks thicker. You or direct sunshine can also initiate a loose avalanche in very steep terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wind slabs are mostly 2-3 days old and will be stubborn to human trigger on Saturday, but their potentially large size should keep them front and center on your mind.  As of Thursday NPS Rangers found northerly winds had loaded atypical S and SW aspects with cracking snow in large pillow-like drifts within the otherwise low-density snow. Slabs were 1-1.5 ft thick, sitting above lower-density snow. The tricky part is that these slabs were buried by around 6" or so of very low-density snowfall from Thursday evening which is far less wind-affected. Identify smooth and broad bulges in the slope below recently formed cornices and wind scoops. Northerly winds have been loading atypical aspects, so cornices with a sharp "lip" are the ones that point toward the suspect slope. Steer around any such potentially wind-loaded open slope steeper than 35 degrees or those that roll away below you for at least another day. 

    (1/11/2024)

    Fluted wind scoops point toward wind-loaded aspects.

    Photo: Olympic NPS Rangers

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Loose avalanches will involve the low-density snow that fell Thursday evening. Avalanches may initiate from snow shedding off rocks or trees with direct sunshine. Rollerballs gaining steam remind you to your overhead exposure. Dry loose avalanches might also be initiated by a rider in higher consequence terrain approaching 40 degrees where the loose surface snow could throw you off balance. In either case, consider the consequences given that even a small avalanche may be consequential given that the ground is not yet protected by a firm "base" of snow in many areas.

    Example: Several small natural tree-bomb triggered dry loose avalanches.

    Photo: ONP Rangers

Avalanche Discussion

Friday was the coldest day in recent memory at Hurricane Ridge and temperatures were below 0F the entire day. Saturday may start with similar temperatures, with significantly moderating temperatures in the afternoon. If temperatures warm into the mid to upper 20s as some weather models indicate, dry loose avalanches could become moist on steep SW-S-SE slopes.

The cold temperatures have preserved exceptional riding conditions on all aspects with a right-side-up density distribution in the upper snowpack. The top 6" or so of snow (12" around 3000-4000 ft) fell Thursday evening and redistributed more deeply on the southern half of the compass with cold temperatures preserving the snow.  A storm cycle Monday-Wednesday added over 2 ft of snow at Hurricane Ridge with that storm snow forming the wind slab problem that also loaded these atypical aspects and formed a firmer layer above a lower-density layer of snow. NPS rangers measured 32" of snow accumulation since Sunday (with 4" of settlement). You might find a breakable crust formed during mild temperatures on 1/8. Slab reactivity should be limited to the snow above the 1/8 crust.

In many cases, 3 ft of recent snow lies on bare ground so consider the early-season obstacles that lie under the low-density snow as you travel. While it now looks like full-on winter, rocks, bushes, holes, creeks, and logs could lurk just under the surface. A photo in the gallery shows bare ground covering south-facing terrain up to 5000 ft just 8-9 days ago.

NWAC may issue a gray "No Rating" for an elevation band when there is not enough snow to present an avalanche hazard.

Regions covered