Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The avalanche danger will rise to MODERATEas sustained sunshine melts snow surfaces throughout the day. Small loose snow avalanches will become easier to trigger throughout the day on steep slopes facing the sun where the snow surface feels moist. These can start small but gain speed and size as they move downhill. Be on the lookout for wind-drifted pockets of snow that will be sensitive to your weight. Triggering large avalanches that fail on deeper weak layers is most likely in very steep, rocky, alpine terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    15-20 inches of fresh snow from the past week will moisten as unimpeded sunshine cooks solar slopes throughout the day. This newer snow sits on top of slick crusts from over a week ago. This morning starts out warmer than yesterday, with a weaker freeze in most locations last night. As surface snow melts and water percolates down to these crusts, it will become increasingly easy to trigger loose avalanches in this wet snow. These are most likely on steep slopes that face the sun, will start out small, and can gain speed and size as they run downhill.

    Luckily this problem is easy to identify and manage through timing. Starting early and planning for an earlier exit will allow you to be off of steep slopes before this problem is at its worst. If you're encountering wet snow on a steep slope and your skis are sinking farther into it than earlier, it's likely time to get off the slope. These will run naturally during the heat of the day, particularly near the base of rocky cliffs and outcroppings that are common in the Sawtooths.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION - WIND SLAB: Be on the lookout for recently formed drifts of wind blown snow as you climb higher in elevation and on aprons of large alpine bowls. While it seems like the wind hasn't blown as much in this zone, multiple human-triggered slides on Galena Peak yesterday, one of which caught, carried, and partially buried a snowboarder,  are data points that shouldn't be ignored as you head into the Sawtooths. If the snow surface is textured or the snow you are moving through becomes stiffer or cracks, it is a sign you are moving through wind-effected snow. 

    (3/18/2024)

    More than 5 wet loose slides starting near 10,000' gained mass running downhill to fill 5 major slide paths on the S Face of Williams. 

    Photo: Brooke Maushund

Avalanche Discussion

Walking out into the mountains there are three considerations you should have today in the Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mountains zone.  

WARM & WET: The mountains saw their first dose of sunshine since recent storms yesterday. Solar input and even warmer temperatures continue into the day today with a weaker freeze overnight and warmer temperatures this morning. This will melt the snow surface throughout the day, increasing the likelihood of wet loose avalanches as the day goes on. These will be most likely on steep slopes that receive direct sunshine, and below rocky outcroppings and cliffs. While these will likely be small, expect the wet snow to carry enough force to knock you off your feet in consequential terrain. Timing and situational awareness will be key to managing this problem. Pick a turn around time and stick to it. 

WINDED: Although not registered on our mid-elevation weather stations, a moderate to strong wind event took place in the Boulders two nights ago into the morning yesterday. This built new wind slabs in the alpine that proved to be reactive to human triggering— one of which caught, carried, and partially buried a snowboarder.  While the Sawtooths have seen less wind in recent days than the Boulders, this event should be on your mind today. This is in addition to the round of settling slabs from several days prior that were largely stubborn to unreactive prior to this event. While these slabs will be relatively small, considering them in your travel plans will be essential to a safe day in the mountains. You are most likely to run into this problem near ridgelines, in mid-slope features like gullies, and on the aprons of large alpine bowls. Visual clues like wind scouring on windward slopes, texturing on leeward slopes, and dune-like featuers will be your best bet to identifying where this problem lives. As the day warms us, be aware of old large CORNICES lingering both overhead and on ridgelines you may be traveling on. The chances of one of these failing will increase throughout the day.

WEIRD: While the chance of triggering an avalanche on deeper persistent weak layers is unlikely, it is not impossible. Triggering one of these is most likely in very steep (>45 degree), rocky, alpine terrain — which is quite common in this zone. Know that while the chances of triggering one of these slides is low, that your chance of surviving one of these beasts is equally low.  

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