This morning the avalanche danger is MODERATE and will likely rise to CONSIDERABLE during the afternoon as heavy snowfall and strong winds create unstable avalanche conditions. Loose-dry and soft slab avalanches failing within the new storm snow will be the predominant avalanche problems today.
Yesterday's pre-frontal winds had just a few inches of new snow to whip around. This morning, the wind blows from the northwest and I would expect some shallow soft slabs of wind-drifted snow across the upper elevation ridges. These will be small this morning but will build throughout the day as the storm arrives.
Always look for and avoid areas that are being loaded by the wind.
Today we will see loose-dry avalanches (sluffs) happen naturally or be easily initiated within the new snow by the weight of a rider. With all the slick and hard underlying surfaces I would expect loose-dry avalanches to run fast and far and could pack a punch.
Once the snow is deep enough for good turns you will want to be on guard for soft slab avalanches failing on or at the old snow surface or within the new storm snow itself (density changes). Soft slabs of new snow are usually more sensitive during high precipitation periods.
Will the new snow be stable or unstable? I do not know. Therefore, you have to be your own avalanche forecaster. Shovel tilt tests, small test slopes, and slope cuts should be in your bag of tricks today. If we stack up 12 to 20 inches of new snow, it's game on. Work through the terrain, make conservative choices, and watch your sluffs. Do not let your guard down today.
Trend: Increasing Danger
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Yesterday, there were no new avalanches reported. Check out all avalanches and observations HERE.
It's snowing. Mountain temperatures are cold and range from 15-25 °F. The wind blows from the northwest at speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts into the 30s. In the past 24 hours, we've picked up roughly 4 to 8 inches of new snow (0.20-0.90" swe).
Today, we will remain under a cold and unstable northwest flow. Mountain temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 20s °F. The wind is forecast to pick up and blow from the northwest at 15-25 mph with gusts into the 30s. Snowfall should begin to fill in over northern Utah this morning. Heavy snowfall with rates up to 1-2 inches per hour will be possible around 12:00 PM. Heavy snowfall will only last a few hours before tapering off into the evening. In total, we could see 1-2 feet of new snow throughout the day.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
