Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

With today's incoming weather, the avalanche danger remains moderate near and above treeline.  There's a slight chance that a skier or rider could trigger a wind slab avalanche in isolated pockets of steep terrain near starting zones, on the leeward side of ridgelines, and near terrain features such as rock outcrops and cliffs.  Don't assume that an absence of instability on top-down assessment means that all slopes are without hazard.  Continue to approach new areas conservatively and watch for cracking and shearing in drifts, mounds of snow, and loaded slopes. 

Once again, a huge thank you to everyone who supported the Mikee Linville Fundraiser!!  Thank you for supporting the scholarship fund and check out the website come fall for information on how to apply.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    After Friday's fast moving storm and the accompanying winds, the amount of snow remaining on the slopes is variable.  Much of this new snow was transported by winds and some of it has been accumulated into drifts and catchment basins.  Yesterday, these wind slabs were mostly hardened, minimally reactive, stubborn to trigger, and showed only minor cracking.  There is a slight chance that moderate gusts last night transported new snow and have made these slabs more reactive today.  Continue to travel cautiously and assess new terrain continually.  

    Wind drifted snow will be more prone to slide on steeper slopes.  Use caution when approaching these isolated wind drifts and avoid mounds of snow at the top of starting zones and chutes.  New snow accumulation is expected to be minimal (1-2") and wind conditions are forecast to be calm to light.  Thus, it's unlikely that today's storm will have much of an impact on yesterday's conditions.  Regardless, winds have been difficult to forecast this season; if you see blowing snow, know that wind slabs may be building and that these slabs may be more sensitive.  

    In most places the new snow seems to be bonding well with the old snow bed surface.  However, this may not be the case everywhere on the mountain.  Yesterday south facing slopes subject to solar insolation showed poor bonding between the new snow/old snow interface and wind drifts in these locations were more responsive to body weight assessments.  Using appropriate travel techniques, such as keeping eyes on one another and moving cautiously when encountering new aspects and microterrain features, will continue to be important.  

     

Avalanche Discussion

Snow totals from Friday's storm are 6" of new snow at the Snowslide Canyon SNOTEL site and 9" of snow at the Snowbowl 10,800 ft. survey stake.  Winds of all directions have affected the mountain since this snow fell, and the distribution and conditions are variable across the peaks.  Some wide open slopes have anywhere from 2-8" of wind affected and cold snow (N and E aspects) on the previously wind and sun-hardened surface.  On more protected aspects, the amount of snow can vary over just a few feet of contouring terrain across a chute or narrow avalanche path.  Steep south and west facing slopes experienced surface melting yesterday and will likely be sun crusted today.  Continue to be on the lookout for signs of instability and use caution when moving onto new aspects and terrain features.

Visibility may be limited today due to the incoming storm. Do your best to keep eyes on one another and continue to use appropriate backcountry travel techniques. Due to obscured conditions, avoid accidentally skiing or riding over wind-mounded snow.  

The pre-storm bed surface may continue to be a factor in the sensitivity of these newly formed wind slabs.  Prior to the storm much of the near treeline and above treeline terrain was either a hardened melt-freeze crust or wind board of 4 Finger to 1 Finger hardness.  In some micro terrain zones the new snow may not be well-bonded with the old surface, this was the case yesterday on steep south facing slopes. If these areas become further wind affected or get new snow, they may release a small avalanche that could knock a skier or rider from their feet and over consequential terrain.  Assess new slopes carefully for variability in reactivity.  

Traffic in the Inner Basin was higher than expected yesterday, and reports of unprepared skiers and riders were received.  If you are traveling in the backcountry be sure to be prepared with proper equipment: such as tranciever, shovel and probe and use appropriate etiquette:  do not drop in above other recreationists, avoid boot-packing over skin tracks, and bring a partner.  

Currently, the SNOTEL site in Snowslide Canyon is nearly 150% of the median snow water equivalent for this time of year. Snow depths in the inner basin near treeline are averaging around 200 cm.  This year, spring powder keeps the snowpack deep at higher elevations, and with this bonus comes increased avalanche danger. Keep a watchful eye, and don't let the last couple of days of spring-like weather lull you into a false sense of security.  

Recent snowpits can be found at https://snowpilot.org/snowpits/query?field_loaction_tid=4.

Recent observations can be found here.

Once again, thank you for supporting the Mikee Linville Fundraiser on the Agassiz deck yesterday!  All proceeds from this event support our avalanche education scholarships.  It's not too late to be involved, check out the Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center website for our ongoing Power Pass and R&D Splitboard binding raffle!

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