Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Very large and dangerous avalanches failing on deeply buried weak layers are still possible. Due to the high consequences of triggering one of these avalanches, diligently manage your terrain and avoid steep slopes on northerly aspects at mid and upper elevations. Winds could also form shallow slabs where a small slide is possible.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Persistent avalanche problems take persistent patience. The only way to deal with this issue is to be diligent and avoid steep slopes on northerly aspects at mid and upper elevations. Avalanches on this layer may be easier to trigger near exposed rocks or wind-loaded slopes. While the likelihood of triggering one of these avalanches slowly wanes with time, the serious consequences remain. These avalanches could break across entire slopes, run long distances, and even reach valley bottoms. With our variable, complex snowpack, choosing to travel in this terrain is akin to rolling the dice. Sometimes you'll get lucky, but sometimes you won't. 

    Multiple very large and widely propagating avalanches were reported from late February through the first few days of March. In two separate involvements near Harts Pass, riders were buried and in one incident, one person was killed. 

    Further west of Washington Pass, this layer is buried deeper, and avalanches on it may be less likely. A heavy snowmobile or cornice fall may make avalanches easier to trigger, but don't discount the potential for a person to get unlucky and find just the wrong trigger point on a slope. 

    (2/28/2025)

    A large avalanche near Hart's Pass that caught 2 snowmobilers and resulted in one fatality on February 28th. 

    HS-AM-D2.5-R4-O. Cone Mtn, NE, 6,800ft

    Photo: NCH

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Watch for shallow wind slabs at upper elevations, particularly in steep, confined alpine features. Visual clues, such as actively blowing snow, textured surfaces, and cornice formations, can help identify wind-loaded terrain. We expect these avalanches to be small, but even a small avalanche could have significant consequences in steep, rocky terrain. Steer around steep slopes if you see actively blowing snow or signs of instability such as cracks that shoot out from your equipment. 

    There is a chance that a smaller avalanche could step down to more deeply buried weak layers, becoming a very large and dangerous avalanche. 

    (11/26/2024)

    Shooting cracks in wind-drifted snow. 7,200ft, W. West fork of Cedar ck

    Photo: Will Govus

Avalanche Discussion

A storm will impact the western North Cascades on Saturday. It likely won't bring much precipitation into the bulk of the East North Zone, but locations further west might experience a few snow showers. The increasing cloud cover, mild temperatures, and moderate gusty winds will have a more significant impact on the avalanche hazard. A poor overnight refreeze might result in small wet loose avalanches or even cause wet avalanches on more northerly terrain that still holds cold, dry snow. 

On Friday, professionals in the area reported touchy, shallow pockets of wind slabs, particularly in the Silver Star area.

On Sunday 3/2, NWAC Forecasters visited the site of the avalanche fatality near Harts Pass that occurred on 2/28. You can read the initial observation here. The final report will be issued in the next few weeks. In addition to this avalanche, forecasters found widespread persistent slab, wet loose, and wet slab avalanches in size up to at least D3.

While the January Drought Layer has been in our snowpack for over a month, with the lack of an overlaying slab there was only isolated activity in specific terrain on this weak layer. The late February storm brought 18" of snow, strong winds, and warmer temperatures, which formed widespread cohesive slab over the JDL for the first time since it was buried in early February. This resulted in a widespread natural avalanche cycle, with crowns up to a mile wide on steep northern terrain at upper elevations. The JDL is buried 2–3 ft (70-100cm) below the surface in the Washington Pass and Harts Pass areas, and ~4' deep for areas further west. An NWAC observer in the Hart's Pass area observed old crowns that failed on the JDL. Snow profiles around 6000ft showed some rounding of the JDL facets and test results were sudden in small column tests, but did not propagate in large column tests. Given this weak layer's uncertainty, widely variable and tricky distribution, they still stayed well clear of steep, open, northern slopes. 

While persistent slab avalanches have been the focus since the late February storm, the warm weather that followed into the first days of March also brought down impressive wet avalanches, some up to size D3 (very large). Natural wet slides occurred as recently as Sunday near Harts Pass, including one that broke trees and gouged to the ground (SW, 4500ft). 

You can help us gather more data by submitting an observation HERE or via the Avy App. 

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