Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Strong southerly wind and one to two feet of new snow will impact the forecast area today. You could trigger an avalanche large enough to bury you near and above treeline on wind-loaded, west, northwest, north, northeast, and east aspects. Increase your margin of safety by choosing low angle terrain and watching for blowing snow, shooting cracks, and collapsing.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Powerful south wind and one to two feet of new snow will make triggering a wind slab avalanche likely today. Over the next 24 hours, wind speeds near and above treeline will be ripe for transporting snow. At 6,000 feet, speeds will be moderate blowing 10 to 20 MPH, while at 10,000 feet, the wind will blow 35 to 45 MPH.

    You'll be most likely to find these wind slabs near and above treeline on northwest, north, and northeast aspects. Though, you may find the wind has crossloaded snow into slabs along the sides of gullies on east or west facing aspects, as well. The leeward sides of trees and other terrain features are common catchment areas that can harbor deep accumulations of wind transported snow.

    An avalanche today could be several feet deep and may not be survivable. Use caution if traveling on any of the shaded aspects of the compass rose steeper than 30°. Look for drifting, shooting cracks, and collapsing. Listen for hollow, drum-like surfaces and feel for density changes from soft to firm or shallow to deep.

    Wind slab below a ridge on the west side of the forecast area.

    Photo: Nick Meyers

Avalanche Discussion

Recent observations:

Old Ski Bowl. We found generally stable avalanche conditions. Frozen snow surfaces extended up to 8,000 feet in the morning, and by the afternoon, snow softened, improving riding conditions below treeline. Above treeline we found minimal wind effect and a right-side-up snowpack.

Gray Butte. Forecasters found new snow depths ranging from 35 to 55 cm, composed of dense, 4 finger to 1 finger hard snow. We found no layers of concern. Upon pit tests, small failures occurred within the new snow with moderate force, but did not propagate in an extended column. Ski turns initiated abundant roller balls on westerly aspects.

McBride to Horse Camp. A skier traveled from McBride to Horse Camp, finding heavy, dense new snow, that was consistent in depth and quality from bottom to top. The start of McBride is dirt until 5,500 feet. Snow depth improves quickly above 5,800 feet. Below and near treeline, very little wind effect was apparent. Above treeline, a light wind effect was visible. In the late afternoon, snow changed from heavy powder to mashed potatoes. 

Regions covered