Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Strong easterly winds will continue to increase the chances of natural and human-triggered avalanches in the upper elevations. Wind slab avalanches may be up to a foot deep and most likely to be found in steep terrain below ridgelines, convex rolls, and loaded gullies. There is also a much smaller chance of triggering a much larger avalanche 3 to 5 feet deep on weak snow buried near the bottom of the snowpack. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong southeast winds kicked up yesterday and will continue through today. These will keep fresh wind slabs as our main concern. These could be 1 to 2 feet deep and forming on top of a weak layer that is buried just below the surface. This setup increases the chances of natural and human-triggered avalanches. The most dangerous terrain will be at higher elevations below ridgelines, in steep gullies, and below convex rollovers. Cracking in the snow around you and watching for active loading will be your biggest clues (check out this great pic of a shooting crack that slid a couple feet downslope yesterday). Look for better surface conditions and a more stable snowpack in terrain that has remained sheltered from the wind. 

    Glide avalanches: Glide cracks are still on the move, and we still don't know when they will release. These avalanches are very large and very unpredictable. The only way to manage them is to avoid spending time under open glide cracks.

    (3/2/2025) 10' shooting cracks were easy to initiate in a small fresh wind slab along the Manitoba ridgeline. The slab was up to 8" thick at this location. Photo: Andy Moderow

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Buried near the base of the snowpack is weak snow that is continuing to cause uneasiness. Although there has not been an avalanche for several weeks that has broken in these weak layers, the continued windy weather keeps loading slopes and bowls and keeps our hackles up. In order for a person to trigger one of these large avalanches they would need to find just the right thin spot. Areas with a thinner snowpack are more dangerous than areas with a thicker snowpack since the weak layers tend to be more developed and easier to impact. This can be really difficult to assess as you travel, so for now we're avoiding big and consequential terrain.

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