Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering avalanches remains a possibility today. You’re most likely to trigger a slide where recent winds have added weight and compacted the snow at the surface, adding stress to the weak layers buried 1-3 feet deep. Avalanches may fail in unpredictable ways and may be triggered from below and to the sides of steeper slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Weak layers formed in November are buried in the snowpack across all aspects and elevations. The characteristics of these layers vary by aspect. Observations have seen a consistent trend of more reactivity on east and south aspects (crust+facet combos), but are not limited to these aspects. Areas with higher amounts of new snow or wind slabs will increase the sensitivity of triggering these persistent weak layers. Slab depths above these layers are 1-3 feet. The middle and upper elevations contain firm cohesive slabs that are now covered by recent light snowfall and may be hard to spot. Areas with higher amounts of new snow or wind slabs will increase the sensitivity of triggering these persistent weak layers.

    Persistent slab avalanches can be triggered remotely, from above, to the sides, or below a slope. They fail in unpredictable ways, break wider than you might expect, and pull back into lower-angle terrain connected to steeper slopes.

    (12/13/2022)

    This avalanche was triggered by a skier ~9,550 feet on a SE aspect. Though smaller, it piled debris into the trees below, and luckily nobody was caught. 

Avalanche Discussion

If you’ve been reading the forecast regularly, you’ve noticed that the avalanche danger has remained at moderate for some time. You might find yourself wondering what that hazard rating really means, and how to assess said hazard in areas you like to ride. This is especially the case as the obvious signs of instability like avalanches, cracking, collapsing, and unstable snow pit tests are on the decline. While your odds of triggering avalanches are slowly decreasing, that possibility is still on the table. Avalanche danger is the likelihood of an avalanche causing damage to something of value (you). You may be a bit less likely to trigger an avalanche today than yesterday, but the consequences of triggering one will be exactly the same. The best way to manage this uncertainty is to build wide safety margins into your travel decisions. Be aware of the terrain you are traveling in and underneath, and picture the consequences of being caught in a slide in that terrain. Picturing the consequences of a slide in the terrain you are in before committing to a steeper slope is a great way to bring your mind into the here and now, and disengage from complacency and biases we can all have with persistent problems. Yesterday in the Tetons, a skier triggered an avalanche on a SE aspect around 9,500 feet in the resort side-country. This avalanche was not exceptionally large, but it piled 1-3 feet of debris in treed terrain below. Though the dragon is quietly going to sleep, the likelihood of triggering a persistent slab ebbs and flows with periods of dry weather and any additional loading, particularly in shallower areas.  

Fortunately, we have the ability to use a variety of tools when tangoing with the dragon, along with a fairly robust addition of community knowledge thanks to so many observations. Continue to refresh that mental snowpack model each time you go out into the backcountry by reading observations in your zone, looking at changes in weather, and asking, "So what does this mean for where I want to travel?" The hardest part is bearing in mind that lack of evidence does not equal evidence of lack. Perhaps you are seeing other folks skiing and riding in avalanche terrain without consequences. None of these things mean that the snowpack is stable; they just mean that it is slightly more stable than it was yesterday. Keep this in mind as you travel in the backcountry today.

Additional Discussion:Winds increased yesterday and overnight, and there may be small, fresh wind slabs today in exposed terrain. These may be sensitive on their own but are also adding weight to the buried weak layer described above. 

 

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