Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

 Reactive wind slabs can be found near and above treeline on all aspect thanks to wind coming out of the north and southwest. The fresh wind slabs are sitting on a weak snow that could avalanche, if triggered. Steep, wind loaded areas near ridgelines will be the most likely places to find these conditions. Be aware to not approach overhanging slopes from below. Remote triggers on wind slabs have been reported recently.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Recent snowfall and winds have made ideal conditions for the creation of new wind slabs. The winds made a big shift last weekend. After the last snowstorm, winds were coming out of the Southwest and then made an abrupt shift to the North. Due to this, fresh wind slabs can be expected on either side of the ridge, complicating travel plans. Once the North winds showed up, the temperature dropped as well. Winds continued through the early part of the week, depositing more snow into starting zones above treeline. The wind slabs are sitting on weak, faceted snow and have the potential for remote triggering.

    (12/23/2022)

    Not the best picture, but this face had 18'' more snow on it before the N winds came and transported the snow to the W side

    Photo: J Thompson

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    More new snow is on the way. The upper portion of the snowpack is becoming increasingly complex. At higher elevations, up to 20 more inches of snow are expected over the next few days, so be aware of signs of instability. As the new snow starts to slab up, we'll see a greater chance for slab avalanches. Areas around treeline seem to be where reactive new snow slabs are hiding out.

Avalanche Discussion

A slow progressive warm up is starting to creep into the Panhandle to replace the bitter cold spell we just experienced. Today looks like it'll be snowy across the zone. 4-8'' of snow are expected in the Selkirks and Cabinet mountains, with a couple more inches tonight. Snow will continue through the weekend at higher elevations and warmer temperatures will bring rain to the valleys by Monday. The snowpack will go through a rude awakening later this week. If weather forecasts are correct, and we see rain on a low density, cold snowpack, the snowpack will change drasticly and the avalanche danger will more that likely increase. We've been talking through all sorts of scenarios for the snowpack, but the reality is, we'll have to wait and see what next weeks warm weather and rain will do. Rain is heavy, so introducing that weight to the snowpack could give it a shock that takes a cvouple days to heal from. I'm getting a little ahead of myself, but I think the changes coming are worth keeping a close eye on.

For such a cold, low pressure system, Last tuesday’s storm was a good producer, depositing 10-14’’ of light density snow across the zone in less than 24 hours. Following the storm came the cold and wind…so, here we are today. I already talked about the wind deposited snow being a new problem, but something else to keep an eye on is the “trigger point’. The ‘trigger point’ is the point where new, loose snow turns into a slab. Usually this coincides with a warmup, which hasn’t happened yet. According to NOAA, temperatures will steadily rise across the zone until Monday when temperatures are forecasted to be in the high 30’s. It's hard to say when the snow on the surface will slab up enough to be a problem, but my hunch is that the avalanche danger will increase when it does.

We can learn so much from you! Please tell us what you see out there. IPAC launched a new OBSERVATION PLATFORM last week. You should check it out. It’s much simpler than the previous version, plus it’s linked to the National Avalanche database so the information can be used on a much larger scale. Enjoy the pow and stay on the right side of the crack!

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