Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Ongoing warm temperatures and a poor freeze will increase the chances of avalanches as the day progresses. While the most obvious avalanches will be small wet loose slides, be on the lookout for larger falling cornices. Give yourself options to move off steep slopes before they become wet and weak, and don't linger below cornices and rock slabs that could shed snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    If you see recent avalanches, rollerballs, or wet, weak snow that slides easily, move to more frozen or lower-angle slopes. Use extra caution around steep, rocky terrain where avalanches are more likely and may be larger. Time your travel based on how the snowpack will warm. Eastern aspects will be the first to weaken and soften. Cloud cover could limit warming of west aspects in the late afternoon, but not enough to impact the danger rating.

    Loose avalanches triggered by snow falling off rocks. Photo: Adam Butterfield

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Many ridgelines are thick with cornices, and the current warm-up is the prime condition for them to fall. You can minimize your exposure by avoiding areas under them and only stopping in places that are not threatened by these overhead hazards. When traveling on ridges, stay far back from the edge and don't travel on overhung snow. Gaping cracks on snowy ridges can indicate that a cornice is ready to fall.

    (4/2/2025)

    Cornices loom at 7,400-7,500ft above northeasterly aspects in the Hairpin Valley.

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    This problem may still exist in areas with shallower snowpacks east of Mazama. Falling cornices could trigger these avalanches. Meltwater from warming could also initiate slides.  If you’re in an area with less 6 feet of snow on the ground, or venturing to far-flung parts of the zone, keep this problem on your mind. If you dig and find a layer of weak sugary facets in  the middle of the snowpack, steer away from steep, open slopes.

    (3/17/2025)

    A widely propagating avalanche near Tiffany Mtn.

    Photo: Willie Webster

Avalanche Discussion

The current warm-up is further transitioning the snowpack by melting previously dry surfaces and sending more water to deeper layers. Slopes that didn't slide from earlier rain events and warming could be tested further. Below 4,000ft some slopes are bare or lacking enough snow for avalanche danger. This is especially true on sun-exposed slopes or those that are far to the east of the Cascade crest.

On April 2nd, an NWAC forecaster teamed up with WSDOT forecasters to check out the snowpack and recent avalanches near Washington Pass. They found that the upper 3 feet of the snowpack had transformed to melt forms, and the lower 1/2 to 2/3rds remained dry. They also cataloged a number of very large avalanches that ran during the late-March AR rain event. While conditions have changed since then, the snow cover and looming cornices will give you an idea of what to expect.

Confidence in the avalanche forecast is low, as observations have become scarce and infrequent. You can help contribute to the forecast by submitting an observation.

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