Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Moderate to strong winds are building slabs throughout the San Francisco Peaks.  Winter recreationists could trigger a wind slab avalanches in steep terrain of 6 to 18 inches in crown height, large enough to bury an individual or carry them over steep terrain.  These slabs are most likely to be found at the top of gullies, on the side of ridgelines, and on the leeward side of terrain features.  Avoid areas of drifted, mounded, or wind deposited snow and watch for signs of instability such as cracking or hollow sounding  wind drifts.

Rocks and logs may be buried just beneath new snow surfaces, move cautiously through any terrain that had exposed obstacles before this week's snow. 

Help support KPAC avalanche education and join us for the Mikee Linville Scholarship Fundraiser today Saturday, April 5th on the Agassiz Deck!  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The NE winds forecast for Friday night and yesterday finally arrived yesterday mid-afternoon.  These winds, which are blowing 15-30 mph and gusting as high as 40 mph, are redistributing the snow from the latest storm cycle, and forming conditions for wind slab avalanches.  These slabs of mounded and drifted snow could fail quickly and have the potential to carry a skier or rider, or bury an individual.  Watch for areas of instability at the top and mid-way across gullies and avalanche paths, and in cross-loaded gullies and near ridgelines.  Although the wind is from the N and NE today, conditions have been blustery and slabs could be located on multiple aspects and in unexpected locations.

    The snow from the previous three days is light and highly transportable by wind.  Wind speeds at mid-mountain have been optimal for snow transport.

    Yesterday, late afternoon up to 3" of graupel was reported in some locations on the Peaks.  If buried by a slab of snow, this graupel layer could be a failure point and make wind slabs easier to trigger. 

    Be cautious in terrain choices today and avoid areas of wind deposited snow, especially above terrain features that could complicate an otherwise small avalanche, such as cliffs, gullies, steep terrain, and trees.

Avalanche Discussion

Over the past three days, the San Francisco Peaks have received 12-14" of snow.  Most of this arrived last Wednesday, but small amounts of snow continued throughout the week, including yesterday afternoon with AZ Snowbowl reporting 2" at 10,800' and the Snow Slide Snotel reporting an additional inch.  Up to 3" of graupel was reported yesterday afternoon at above and near treeline areas in the Inner Basin.

Winds also picked up yesterday between 2:00 and 3:00 pm and have been constant throughout the evening and are forecast to continue today.  This will make for blustery travel conditions and skiers and riders will need to navigate the terrain cautiously to avoid the slabs that have started to build.  These wind slabs could be sensitive and send a skier or rider on an unexpected slide.  

If buried, the graupel from yesterday could make these slabs more reactive.  Look for signs of instability early on in your tour and ski jump or kick on small steep test slabs with inconsequential terrain below.  This will help provide an idea of the reactivity of more consequential slabs.

Yesterday there were no reports of slab avalanches, but a small D1 loose avalanche did occur on a NE facing slope near treeline.  Watch for these today, as well.  They are possible in steep terrain at potentially all aspects.

Remember to use smart travel protocols.  Travel one at a time in suspect terrain and keep eyes on those moving through avalanche terrain.

Access and egress will continue to be problematic.  Rocks and logs were an issue in many locations before the storm and may be hiding underneath the recent snow.  Skinning conditions are improved, but when returning to lower elevations partially and fully buried obstacles will be a hazard. 

Join us on the Agassiz deck today, Saturday, April 5th for the Mikee Linville scholarship fundraiser!  For more details visit kachinapeaks.org  

If you get out, please submit your observations or email us at [email protected]. 

KPAC has documented evidence of several avalanches this season - Avalanche Database.  

Regions covered