Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

It's becoming harder to trigger an avalanche, but faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack continue to persist. Large and destructive human-triggered persistent slab avalanches remain possible today at all elevations.  Avoid steep wind drifted slopes giving avalanche paths wide berths as you still may be able to trigger an avalanche well above you.  Likely trigger points near rock outcrops and on the margins of the slab are places you're most likely to impact weak layers triggering an avalanche.  Lower angle wind-sheltered slopes will provide safer and better skiing and riding.    

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Faceted weak layers continue to persist in the snowpack from faceted crusts to basal facets closer to the ground.  In shallower snowpacks (less than 2 m) these weak layers have been slow to heal and strengthen.  Wind drifted and loaded slopes near and above treeline on North through East will be most suspect and where avalanches will be bigger.  Below treeline, the snowpack continues to be weak and shallow with settling stiffening slabs resting over facets and depth hoar. Triggering an avalanche at this elevation band would still have high consequences if it swept you over a cliff or into a terrain trap.  

    Avoid likely trigger points, near rock outcrops, steep convex rolls and on the margins of the slab. Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses may not be present in travels and lure you into steeper terrain.  Using a probe pole to feel for strong over weak layering or taking the time to dig down into the snowpack is a great way to assess if this poor snowpack structure exists.    Any persistent slab avalanche would be large and dangerous potentially taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  Giving avalanche paths wide berths and avoiding be on or connected to slopes over 35 degrees is a great way to stay safe. 

    Stronger slabs from previous storms rest on top of faceted weak layers that continue to persist deeper down in the snowpack.

Avalanche Discussion

Hopefully, you enjoyed the "Snow Moon" last night but unfortunately for us this year it's bringing us winds instead of snow.  Strong westerly winds continue to impact our mountains and that trend will continue today with sustained winds in the 30's and gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range that are stripping and eroding windward slopes and stiffening slabs on others.  These harder slabs are capping weak layers, from faceted crusts to basal facets and depth hoar closer to the ground.  Hard slabs like these can feel good underfoot and tempt you into steeper terrain.  However, the weak layers of concern are found deeper down in the snowpack underneath these stubborn slabs that may just need you to hit a "sweet spot" where you're able to impact a buried weak layer.  Hard slabs can often break in unpredictable ways often times well above you. 

It's tricky conditions right now, with a degree of uncertainty that leads us to this lower likelihood but the consequences still remain high if you were to get an avalanche.  A large natural persistent slab avalanche from last weekend serves as a good reminder of what the consequences could be right now, with avalanches failing on or near the ground taking with it most of the season's snowpack. It's in shallow snowpacks (less than 2 meters) that facets have been slow to heal and gain strength. In long column tests, these weak layers near the ground continue to fail with moderate to hard force with the ability to propagate across the column. 

The snowpack isn't always giving us immediate feedback like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks until it's too late. Don't get lured into thinking previous tracks on a slope makes it safe.  It may just take one person to hit the wrong place where the slab is thinner to get the slope to avalanche.  Digging snowpits are great, but may give you false security if you dig in the wrong spot in a deeper snowpack.  There is a lot of uncertainty out there as well as a high level of variability from slope to slope.  If you're not a fan of these tricky conditions, you can always stick to lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain as the skiing and riding have greatly improved on northerly aspects.

Regions covered