Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a persistent slab avalanche is possible on Northwest through SE aspects near and above treeline.  It's on these slopes that you're most likely to find stiff cohesive slabs on top of weak faceted snow. This structure will be difficult to identify on the surface, take the time to dig down into the snow to identify if this strong over weak snowpack structure exists. It's still possible that one of these avalanches if triggered would be large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person. You should seek to evaluate snow and terrain carefully, especially on slopes over 35 degrees. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    An overall poor snowpack structure exists on many NW through SE slopes near and above treeline.  It's on these slopes that you're most likely to find stiff cohesive slabs over very weak faceted snow beneath and in some cases near the ground. Slopes that have been susceptible to previous wind events have several layers of facets sandwiched between slabs.  Previous hard slabs that are now buried by the new snow from earlier in the week will feel good underfoot and may create a false sense of security. Finding the "sweet spot" such as thinner portions along the margins of the slab or around rock outcroppings can provide a better avenue for effecting buried weak layers and producing an avalanche. 

    Most slopes below treeline lack slab at this time, but open wind prone slopes at these elevations may have enough of a slab to be able to propagate an avalanche that could sweep you into trees or push you into a terrain trap.

    Persistent weak layers in the middle of the pack and depth hoar near the ground in shallow snowpacks remain a concern, especially on slopes where you find a stiff cohesive slab.

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity has quickly quieted down since Tuesday where many slopes near and above treeline on North through East aspects avalanched naturally.  Many of these avalanches were able to step down into deeper weak layers and a good reminder that we have a suspect snowpack structure on many slopes.  Although triggering an avalanche may be more stubborn now, it's hard to put any trust in the snowpack we currently have. Fragile weak facets have struggled to gain any strength during the season in the overall shallow snowpack (typically less than 1m of snow).  

The one constant in the snowpack right now is weak faceted persistent weak layers found at varying depths in the snowpack.  Our variability comes with slabs that have formed during previous wind events.  A strong wind event from 12/23 that proceeded this latest round of snow, laid down stiff often supportable hard slabs near and above treeline. These stiff slabs vary greatly in their thickness and are now on many slopes the supportable surface that we're skiing and riding powder on. Remember the weak layers of concern are beneath this and the slab you're on is the necessary ingredient for a slab avalanche!  A layer of near-surface facets that are buried just below this slab seems to be the major culprit for the latest round of avalanche activity. In shallow snowpacks, we continue to find weak faceted depth hoar near the ground, that many avalanches back in Long Canyon stepped down to.       

West winds this morning are in the 20's gusting in the 30 mph range and should remain moderate throughout the day.  With snow available for transport, the increase in winds may drift snow into more cohesive slabs on the surface than what we've seen over the last several days. If you notice a stiffening of the surface, this may be enough of a cohesive slab to be able to propagate an avalanche. The most likely places will be on the leeward side of ridgelines and in cross-loaded gullies or slopes.    

With ample sun and warming temperatures, solar-induced surface instabilities may also produce small loose snow avalanches on solar aspects at all elevations by early afternoon today. In recent travels, we were able to get warming loose snow on the surface to easily run on the firm surfaces this latest storm snow fell on. It's possible these small avalanches may entrain into weak snow creating a larger avalanche. In wind-sheltered areas near and below treeline, cohesion-less snow may be able to produce small dry loose avalanches out of steep terrain features. 

Even with all the talk about a poor snowpack structure, there is great skiing and riding conditions right now. Wind-sheltered slopes less than 35 degrees is a great way to stay safe and have fun as we begin 2021!

Regions covered