Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

New snow will increase the avalanche danger today. You will be able to trigger avalanches on slopes that have 6" or more of wind drifted snow.  Wind drifted slabs may not be bonding well to the old existing surface.  Several faceted weak layers in the snowpack will face their first major test in a while and will struggle to handle this added weight. Large dangerous persistent slab avalanches are likely near and above treeline. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision making are essential today.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    After close to three weeks of high pressure, the several fragile faceted weak layers in the snowpack will face their first test of 2021.  These faceted weak layers should struggle to handle this added load. Near-surface facets below the new snow will be the most likely place to trigger an avalanche, but with several weak facet layers in the mid-pack and closer to the ground, there is a good possibility that avalanches could step down into these layers creating a large destructive avalanche that may not be survivable.  

    Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like collapsing and shooting cracks.   Avoid being on or connected to slopes greater than 30 degrees as we may see avalanches able to be triggered from long distances away.    

    Several weak faceted layers in our snowpack will be stressed by the new snow load.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    2 to 4 inches of snow have fallen as of 6 AM with an additional 3 to 6 inches forecasted throughout the day today.  Winds have been in the 20 to 30 mph range gusting into the 40's out of the E/SE with this back door cold front.  If the forecast verifies we should see wind slabs continue to grow throughout the day on the surface.  These slabs are forming on a variety of different surfaces from crusts to near-surface facets and may not be bonding well. You will be able to trigger wind slab avalanches on slopes where you find 6 or more inches of accumulated or wind drifted snow especially in areas like the leeward side of ridgelines and cross-loaded gullies. 

    Pay attention to wind drifted pillows and shooting cracks on the surface. Any smaller wind slab avalanche has a good likelihood of stepping down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche

Avalanche Discussion

It's nice to see a return to winter after close to three weeks of high-pressure with the first significant storm of 2021. 2 to 4 inches of snow with about .25" of snow water equivalent (SWE) has fallen as of 6AM.  An additional 3 to 6 inches of snow is forecasted throughout the day today.  E/SE winds have been in the 20 to 30 mph range gusting in the 40's and look to remain with us throughout the duration of the storm. E/SE winds are not the typical loading pattern so be heads up especially on west aspects for freshly drifted wind slabs. 

With the new snow and wind will come an increase in avalanche danger. The last two loading events in December, we had a widespread natural and human-triggered avalanche cycle on persistent weak layers and that trend should continue with this storm. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are likely.  Even with a smaller storm than what was first initially forecasted for us it won't take much to test the fragile weak facet layers we've been talking about over the last several weeks.  Unfortunately, this storm most likely won't be the big test needed to flush our persistent weak layers.  It may just need a smaller trigger like a human to get the slope to fail.     

As exciting as it is to get new snow, we'll need to dial back our terrain choices today.  Cautious route-finding and careful snowpack evaluation will become essential moving forward, especially as we get our minds back into the avalanche game.  If you looking to get out and ride powder today stick to low angle wind-sheltered slopes with less than 6 inches of snow.   

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