Avalanche forecast

Banner Summit

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The chance for wet avalanches will increase as the snow surface turns to mush. Mountain locations remained above freezing last night and today will be hotter than yesterday. If you're sinking deep into wet, slushy snow call it a day or find colder slopes to enjoy. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Yesterday, skiers in the Sawtooths were able to ski cut small wet sluffs. On my drive north, I observed some fresh wet loose avalanches in the Boulders, Smokys, and southern Sawtooths. Today, expect to see an uptick in wet loose avalanche activity as temperatures rise. There are two varieties of wet loose avalanches to consider today. 

    1. Surficial Wet Loose - Recent snowfall sits above a stout crust on many slopes. As the snow surface softens this snow will slide easily on the firm crust below. These avalanches could be numerous but will generally remain small. 
    2. Gouging Wet Loose - As the crust below the recent snowfall weakens, water will move deeper into the snowpack allowing for larger slides (photo above/right). These avalanches will become more likely in the heat of the afternoon and into tomorrow as more of the snowpack turns to mush.

    The onset of wet avalanche activity can be sudden. Keep your eyes peeled for fresh slides and avoid lingering under steep, sunny slopes.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION: Wet slab avalanches should be on your mind. The chance for wet slab avalanches will increase in the next couple of days as temperatures remain above freezing. Steering clear of areas with gloppy, unsupportable snowpacks—including areas below large avalanche paths with mushy snow conditions—is a simple way to minimize the chances of triggering or tangling with large wet slabs.  

    (4/1/2021) The chances of larger wet loose avalanches will increase as warm temperatures allow meltwater to push deeper into the snowpack. This slide in the Sawtooths likely occurred during last weekend's warm up.

Avalanche Discussion

HOT THEN HOTTER

Warm air is filtering in from the SW and temperatures continue to rise. Here are the temperature trends on/near Baldy, Galena Pass, Smiley Creek, and Banner Summit since Monday. All of these graphs show a daytime high temperature as well as an overnight low temperature that's warmer than the last. This trend is set to continue into tomorrow and level off Sunday.

We've seen very few wet avalanches in recent days and all have been small. Today, however, will be different for two main reasons:

  • First, we'll start the day 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Overnight low temperatures were above freezing, allowing wet snow near and below the snow surface to remain soft. This will give melting a substantial "head-start" over yesterday.
  • Second, the wind is set to ease. Yesterday's moderate wind helped keep wind-exposed surfaces markedly cooler than in sheltered areas. After a blustery start, wind speeds are forecast to subside during the heat of the day.

While far less likely, we should be thinking more about the possibility of wet slab avalanches and cornice failures. These hazards are hard to predict, and our best way to deal with them is to recognize where they're most likely and limit our time there. Thankfully, you can greatly reduce your exposure to all of these problems by adopting a few simple tips:

  • Get an early start and plan to return to the trailhead before the heat of the afternoon.
  • Limit the time you spend underneath large, steep, rocky slopes that face the sun.
  • Seek out cooler snow, either higher on the mountain or on slopes shaded from the sun. 
  • Give cornices a wide berth. These behemoths can sag and fail, often breaking much further back on a ridge than you'd expect. 

Wet avalanche problems will persist throughout the weekend before subsiding as cooler weather arrives early next week. 

PLEASE HELP US HELP YOU:  We want to learn more about how you use the Forecast and our products. Kelly Rice-McNeil (Eastern Oregon University) and Victor McNeil (Wallowa Avalanche Center) are spearheading a project to understand how you use avalanche center products and, ultimately, to improve them. While you're waiting for the corn cycle to kick into gear again, help us help you by taking 10 minutes or so to fill out a survey. Teaser: there is a little SAC-specific questioning involved - please participate and get your backcountry partners, friends, family, and clients involved! Google Forms link:  https://forms.gle/YwgEwHRnT4ucSF226  

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