Avalanche forecast

Mt Hood

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A burst of snowfall and extreme winds will bring a spike in avalanche danger Sunday night. New and wind-drifted snow may bond poorly to slick, underlying crusts. Give the snowpack time to adjust and avoid steep wind-loaded slopes especially at upper elevations.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The storm will start out warm and wet and finish cold with the heaviest precipitation expected Sunday night. Snow levels will start near 4500ft and lower to 1500ft by Monday morning. Strong to extreme westerly winds will blow, and new snow will be redistributed into reactive slabs in leeward terrain. You may encounter unstable wind drifted snow in many areas, but the most dangerous will be east-facing slopes 35 degrees and steeper near and above treeline. In these areas, large avalanches will be easy to trigger, and a few could even run naturally over the next 24 hours. 

    Ease into terrain slowly and choose simple slopes away from the runout of large avalanche paths. Carefully assess how new snow bonds to firm, icy old snow surfaces and watch for sudden and easy failures in snowpack tests. Recent avalanches, cracking, and collapsing should direct you to low-angle terrain sheltered from the wind. 

    Example photo of a small triggered wind slab on a test slope in Sand Canyon on Mt Hood (E aspect, 6200ft) from earlier this season. 

    Photo: Andrew Kiefer

Avalanche Discussion

A fast-moving winter storm will finally bring an end to the prolonged period of dry, sunny weather. Thick, firm crusts are widespread across all aspects and elevations on Mt Hood, and new snow may not bond well initially. This new/old snow interface will be the focus of avalanche concerns moving forward. It is certainly slick and icy and will be a good bed surface for avalanches. It may even harbor weak snow in some high elevation terrain that stayed cold and shady in recent days. Overall, weak snow has been hard to find, and a wet and windy start to the storm may rule out these concerns. We will have to see how it all plays out, so gather information as you travel and build in a wide margin for error. The old snow surface will be easy to find. Be sure to carefully evaluate how new snow bonds, and be patient in the coming days as the snowpack adjusts to this rapid change.

Over the past three weeks, conditions were unseasonably warm and the snowpack endured a beating. Since January 6th, the overall height of snow decreased by nearly 3ft at the Mt Hood Meadows Base weather station (5380ft). Many ridgelines and steep rocky slopes melted out to bare ground. Extremely icy surfaces lead to numerous falls and multiple rescues on the upper mountain over the past week. Several creeks also reopened during the warm weather and many snow bridges fractured or collapsed. These, along with glide cracks and moats near rocks and cliff bands will be additional hazards to deal with in the coming days hidden beneath the new snow.  

Regions covered