Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche conditions are generally safe but two small avalanche types require your attention.  Expect to find thin, yet sensitive wind-drifted slabs, on leeward terrain and soft snow surfaces capable of producing loose avalanches on terrain steeper than about 38 degrees.  Both flavors of avalanches are anticipated to remain small but could prove consequential if you were knocked down over a cliff, forced into a tree, or pushed into a gully where debris can pile up deeper.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Loose Dry avalanches require the most management on slopes facing the north half of the compass.  Low-density snow from the past week mixed with layers of weak, faceted snow that formed during the cold, dry periods in between are consistently producing human-triggered avalanches.  Slope angles need to be about 38 degrees or steeper for enough mass to accumulate, build momentum, and run.  Ski cuts, moving across the fall-line while descending, or choosing lower-angled slopes can help you effectively manage this problem.  Avalanches will generally remain small but could pile up deep enough to bury you in a terrain trap.

    Human-triggered Loose Dry avalanches on Schuylkill Ridge from Wednesday, 1/26.  The lookers left sluff ran into a gully which allowed the debris to pile up and potentially bury a person.

Avalanche Discussion

The avalanche danger remains at LOW (Level 1 of 5) but two flavors of avalanche problem are creating conditions that have the danger nearing MODERATE (Level 2 of 5).  Avalanche conditions sometimes do not neatly fit into the predetermined boxes for avalanche forecasting.  You need to manage thin, wind-drifted slabs at upper elevations from yesterday's moderate northerly winds and Loose Dry avalanches in steep terrain with soft snow surfaces.

At upper elevations, small amounts of low-density snow were blown around creating thin Wind Slabs.  Due to the lack of available snow for transport, Wind Slab formation is expected to be isolated in nature, but potentially sensitive if you find soft, drifted slabs.  The lack of volume will keep avalanches on the small end of the size scale.  The terrain immediately below ridge tops, beneath fresh cornice formation, and cross-loaded in gullies are the most likely place to encounter a Wind Slab.  Stay alert and defensive in extreme terrain and avoid being above terrain traps where the consequences of a small slide could be magnified.

Loose Dry avalanches have been added to the problem list today.  This past week small amounts of snowfall and the faceting process have combined to increase the volume of snow available for entrainment in loose avalanches.  Sheltered, northerly-facing terrain offers the largest potential slides, but most terrain is unlikely to bury you unless you are pushed into a terrain trap.  Take a look at this observation from Schuylkill Ridge on Wednesday to get a clearer picture of the potential size.  Pushing small amounts of snow down terrain prior to committing to a slope can help you gauge the Loose Dry avalanche potential.  You can always choose low-angled slopes less than 35 degrees to avoid the problem altogether.

Regions covered