Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger is Low, but watch for unstable, mushy snow on south facing slopes with daytime warming. Here you could initiate loose wet avalanches in very steep terrain where the snowpack is shallow or near rocks. Expect a variety of surface conditions ranging from sun softened snow, to supportable dry snow, to slippery ice crusts. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    With very mild, above-freezing temperatures continuing at upper elevations, you may find mushy, wet snow where you could trigger wet loose avalanches. Observe the thickness or supportability of the surface crust as the day progresses. If you're sinking past your ankle, or the sled bogs down in deep wet snow, you can trigger a wet loose avalanche on steep slopes. Use caution around rocky terrain where the snowpack is shallow, or with exposed rocks in the warm sun.

    Outside of steep, sun warmed slopes, avalanches are unlikely. If you find cold, hollow wind stiffened snow (possible at very high elevations and shaded aspects) check to see how it's bonded to layers below. In high, alpine terrain watch for cornices, which could fracture off and become a large hazard tumbling down the slopes.

    (1/22/2022)

    Small wet loose avalanche off steep south facing terrain on Lichtenberg Mtn, in nearby Stevens Pass zone.

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

Observers found a range of conditions on Sunday from good corn skiing on Southeast aspects of Dirtyface, boilerplate wind stiffened snow on high peaks of the upper Chiwawa River, to slide for life conditions on low angle slopes with a thick ice crust in low elevations of the Icicle Creek drainage. Cold temperatures at very low elevations kept valley fog in place in some areas, but up above temperatures were very mild and the sun was out.  

Near-record temperatures at higher elevations for multiple days in a row would typically have us very concerned (Tumwater Mountain hit 60 degrees on Sunday!). However, there are several factors that have prevented widespread avalanching this time around: 1) Long winter nights and generally clear skies this time of year have contributed to the snowpack refreezing. 2) The low sun angle limits the duration of sunshine on any given surface. 3) Two previous wet avalanche cycles and a prolonged warm spell have transitioned the snowpack into one that resembles a spring melt-freeze cycle. 

You're likely to face challenging travel conditions with crusts, dust on crust on high elevation northerly slopes, wet unconsolidated snow, and large piles of avalanche debris as you travel in the mountains. Creeks are opening up and flowing. Recent snow (from 1/20) may rest over a layer of surface hoar on shaded slopes. Whether this recent snow rests on crusts or weak snow grains, a quick hand pit will be a great way to observe how well the recent storm snow is bonding to underlying surfaces. 

Regions covered