Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

12"-20" of new snow on Monday added a significant load to our weak, underlying snowpack and the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep, northerly facing slopes that had a foot or more of pre-existing snow. In these areas, new and wind drifted snow has piled on top of layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow. This persistent weak layer problem will be with us for the foreseeable future and though overall low coverage will make it difficult to access these areas, steep, northerly facing slopes should be avoided. Even a small avalanche triggered under these conditions can have serious and painful consequences. South-facing slopes have generally LOW to MODERATE danger with an isolated potential for unstable wind drifts.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Winds have been mostly light the last few days but there have been a few bumps that could blow some snow around. Look for unstable areas of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in exposed, upper elevation terrain. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. In most cases, a triggered wind drift will most likely step down into a persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow. Avoid steep slopes with areas of wind drifted snow.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    A significant load has been added to our fragile snowpack. On mid and upper elevation northerly aspects, the snowpack has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow on top of a slick, hard bed surface. This has created a persistent weak layer problem that will stick with us for some time. Although avalanche terrain remains difficult to access due to low coverage, human-triggered avalanches are likely in these areas and steep, northerly facing terrain will remain off limits for the foreseeable future.

    This video was taken a week ago, and it illustrates the poor snowpack structure that now sits underneath the new snow.

Special Announcement

The Geyser Pass Road was plowed yesterday. The surface is snow packed on dirt.

The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed into Gold Basin yesterday.

Recent Activity

In our travels Tuesday we observed several natural avalanches in Gold Basin. Most were "pockety" in nature, averaging less than 50' wide due to an overall lack of connectivity at this time. They also tended to release further downslope, likely due to a lack of pre-existing snow higher up as well as strong winds depositing snow further down. I'll have an updated list soon.

This avalanche on the NE face of Mount Tukno was a bit of an exception as it found more snow to connect with as it ran down through the gully. Also, note the likely sympathetic release on the looker's lower left.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 30" Wind NE 5-15 G20 Temp 22F

Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').

NWS weather forecast

Snowpack Discussion

A foot of new snow fell on Monday at the Geyser Pass Trailhead with 1" of SWE (Snow Water Equivalent). 15" fell in Gold Basin with up to 20" up high. Needless to say, this load has added significant stress to our fragile snowpack. On northerly aspects, layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow exist on top of a slick, hard melt-freeze layer. In our travels to Gold Basin on Tuesday, we observed widespread collapsing and cracking as well as several natural avalanches that ran during the height of the storm. Dave Garcia and Nate Ament were up in Horse Creek yesterday and continued to observe widespread cracking and collapsing. Read their observation here. Overall coverage is still quite thin. Prior to this storm, snow depths ranged from about 6" at Geyser Pass Trailhead to 18" at Geyser Pass. Most south-facing slopes were bare. The new snow will hide a myriad of obstacles such as rocks and deadfall that lurk just beneath the surface so keep your enthusiasm in check and stick to low angle grassy slopes and meadows.

Additional Info

For an in-depth look at how the early season snow history has lead to these conditions, check out this blog post from Chris Benson.

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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