Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard is MODERATE today.  Human triggered avalanches between a few inches and up to 3 feet deep are possible.  You are most likely to trigger shallow avalanches near ridge tops where recently formed wind slabs exist.  Deeper avalanches are more likely in protected areas where older weak layers have been preserved.  Your likelihood of triggering these increases where the snowpack is thinner in rocky areas.  Skiers in the south end of our advisory area near Tamarack Resort are continuing to trigger fairly large avalanches that are propagating easily over large areas.  Your best bet is to stay out of steep terrain until the snowpack has more time to heal.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Winds have been mostly light for the last 2 days but with frequent gusts into the 15+mph range,  just enough to keep the new snow moving around on exposed terrain.  Be cautious especially near ridgelines and on wind-exposed slopes.  Pay attention to obvious clues as to which way the wind has been blowing; ripples across the snow surface, wind lips, or drifts are great visual clues.  Local variations in terrain can influence wind loading on slopes that may not be on your radar.  Red flags like shooting cracks, or hollow feeling or sounding snow should turn you around in your tracks.  Shallow wind slabs may have the ability to step down into deeper layers below creating much larger avalanches with much higher consequences.

    D2 avalanche that was reported on 1/7/21 in the backcountry just south of Tamarack Resort.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Our snowpack has multiple weak layers right now.  These layers are pretty obvious if you stick your pole or probe in the snowpack and feel the changes in resistance as you push down.   In the upper 2 feet,  crusts, small-grained facets, and degrading surface hoar are present depending on your aspect.  Deeper in the snowpack is a lingering layer of loose, larger grained faceted snow that refuses to go away.  While this weak layer is getting harder to trigger and slowly gaining strength, the skier triggered avalanches in the backcountry near Tamarack Ski Area this week demonstrate how touchy this layer still is in some areas.  With the overlying slab becoming more consolidated, denser, and continuing to get thicker, the consequences of triggering an avalanche in this layer are going up with every storm. 

    While the potential for natural avalanches has decreased since our last storm, the potential for skier and snowmobile triggered avalanches remains.  Choose your terrain wisely and keep an eye on your partners.  Don't ski out of bounds near the ski areas without the proper safety and rescue equipment. 

                           

     

    Extended Column Test on a SW aspect. The top 13 inches(35cm) scored an ECTP 13 which is still too touchy to inspire confidence on steeper slopes.

Avalanche Discussion

Thank you to everyone that has been sending in observations this year.  These help the forecast team form a clearer picture across the forecast area. We will be continuing to improve the observation form to make your submissions even easier over the next few weeks.

Also, resort and backcountry skiers leaving local ski areas need to be aware that areas outside of the ski area boundary are not patrolled, have no avalanche control work being done in them and if you are injured skiing or caught in an avalanche, the ski patrol has no obligation and may not have the resources to assist you.  Backcountry rescues are subject to the direction of the Sheriff's department and Search and Rescue Teams.  Rescue could be hours away, even close to the ski area.  Self-rescue is your best option and that means that everyone in your party should have the gear, understand the risk, and have the ability to provide an avalanche rescue and to perform basic life-saving medical skills.  The backcountry adjacent to resorts has some of the statistically highest concentrations of avalanche incidents and fatalities every winter no matter where you are.  Thanks to the Friends of the Payette Avalanche Center and our local resorts, you will now see beacon checkers at our backcountry gates.  This is a great reminder of the risks you face when you leave the ski area.

Our friends at the Sawtooth Avalanche Center will be hosting a FREE online Introduction to Avalanches Class on January 14, this is a great opportunity to get some basic knowledge or brush up on your avalanche basics if you have not taken a class in the last few years.