Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Fair weather and a relatively strong upper snowpack will yield generally safe avalanche conditions on Saturday. Take note of how changes in the weather are affecting the snowpack throughout the day and be prepared to alter your plans if you see signs of instability.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    High freezing levels could combine with periods of sunshine or rain to trigger some lingering Wet Loose avalanches on Saturday. The more likely scenario will be that the snow becomes “ripe” enough from these environmental inputs that you will be able to push snow on steep slopes to create Wet Loose avalanches of your own. If the rain comes to fruition, look for Wet Loose avalanches, particularly on northerly slopes that may still be holding onto some colder and drier snow. Prior to the rain, periods of prolonged sunshine will be the most likely time for Wet Loose avalanches to develop.

    These slides are often trivialized, but they can entrain lots of snow as they descend and can be consequential if they sweep you off your feet near terrain traps. If you notice that the surface is sticky and wet, you are sinking into wet snow deeper than your ankle, or it's raining, then it's time to head toward lower angled or shaded slopes. When choosing travel routes, keep aware of terrain and other humans above you capable of shedding snow into your location. 

    (4/1/2021) A very small loose wet avalanche. Notice how it starts at a point and fans out.

Avalanche Discussion

The upper snowpack around the West South has taken a beating over the past week, with multiple melt-freeze cycles and plenty of high freezing levels and sunshine. Saturday should be another fairly warm day with freezing levels reaching 7000 feet, but there should be a bit less sunshine than we have seen recently and possibly a poor overnight freeze. The limited sunshine should help to limit Wet Loose avalanches and produce generally safe avalanche conditions, despite the poor overnight freeze.  As we often like to remind you, low danger doesn’t mean no danger, and we have a few things for you to keep in mind:

  • The snowpack has not yet undergone its full transition into a springtime snowpack. Not far below the surface, you can still find cold dry snow that could be entrained or fail as a slab given the right avalanche.
  • We are keeping a watchful eye on that snow just below the surface, but our concerns on Saturday are focused on the surface snow. We are including wind drifted areas and cornices in our categorization of surface snow. 
  • Give cornices a wide berth by not traveling on or beneath them. They notoriously break back further than expected and often fail during periods of warmer weather. Some may have grown large during last week’s extreme wind event.
  • Don’t rule out an isolated pocket of Wind Slab, particularly at upper elevations or near rocky features like confined gullies. Textured surfaces or firm hollow feeling snow can help you identify wind-loaded features to avoid.

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.

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