Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 23rd, 2011–Nov 24th, 2011

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Purcells.

The bulletin is based on limited data. Local variation in conditions and danger levels are likely to exist. To produce more accurate forecasts, we need information. Please send an email to [email protected].

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Thursday we may see short periods of dryer weather, and dropping freezing levels. Don't let this fool you, there is more, moisture, wind and warmer temperatures headed into the region Thursday night or Friday morning. I have fair confidence of the timing and intensity. Friday we may see another period of dryer conditions, with lowering freezing levels possibly falling to 800m or lower. A strong frontal system will move into the Interior Saturday. Depending on the track, the Purcells may see moderate to heavy precipitation. If it tracks somewhat northerly we may only see light amounts.

Avalanche Summary

Several natural avalanches have been reported up to size 2.0, crown depths 100-120cm to ground with wide propagation, and running far. Explosive work in the past 24hrs has also produced up to size 2.5. These avalanches were failing on the predominant weak facet/crust/depth hoar combo above the ground.

Snowpack Summary

Parts of the region have received up tp 60cm of new snow over the past 48hrs. Remember these amounts could differ locally inside your region. This new snow, wind and warmer temps have been the perfect recipe for slab development. There is likely variable wind slab formation on all exposed areas. The average, snowpack depths are looking like 70-90cm at treeline and probably 100-160. The basal layers in our current snowpack are proving to be very weak. Reports from the field are indicating that this facet/crust/depth hoar combo has reached its threshold and natural avalanche activity is happening. Avalanches are running to ground with wide propagation. The November 7th surface hoar layer is also down quite deep in the snowpack, ranging around the meter mark. There have been no confirmations of that layer being reactive, it seems like most things are running to ground or within the storm snow. The snowpack in the Purcells is highly variable in distribution. There may not be enough snow below treeline to create an avalanche problem, but problems from above could run into this elevation. Forecasters today will be posting a post storm strategy blog. This will entail different out comes of how fast or slow our snowpack may heal during and/or after these storms hit.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.