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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 29th, 2011–Nov 30th, 2011

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

Confidence

Fair - Due to limited field observations

Weather Forecast

Light-moderate snow amounts will end sometime Tuesday evening. A trough over the interior will move through to the east Wednesday morning bring a ridge of high pressure which will produce clear skys over the region into Thursday and Friday. Freezing levels could rise up to 1500m during the day, then lower back to valley bottom at night.

Avalanche Summary

In the Dogtooth range isolated natural avalanche activity wasobserved. These avalanches occurred from steep, rocky terrain at daysend Sunday, up to size 1.5 due to rapid loading. I suspect this mayhave been the norm through the region as the freezing level was at1800 meters and a surge of new snow and wind hammered through. Thismay be a good time to wait out the storm, let the new snow and thesnowpack settle, and make observations from your local s mountainswhen the visibility improves.

Snowpack Summary

Snow depths in the alpine are between 170 & 250cm. I suspect Sunday's warm, moist storm combined with strong southwesterly winds created stiff wind slabs on lee slopes, and some storm slab instabilities at upper elevations A highlighted concern for the Purcells was the mid-November storms that created a heavy slab over a weak basal faceted base. The Purcells saw a significant cycle of large avalanches running full depth as a result. (The Lizard Range also saw very similar results all failing on the weak basal layers.) . While the upper snowpack is likely tightening up, an avalanche triggered in the upper layers or initiated from a shallower spot in the snowpack could step down to weak basal facets at the ground creating large & unmanageable avalanches with very high consequences.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.