Direct sun is possible in some areas on Monday and may spark a new avalanche cycle in steep terrain.
Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Snow eases to flurries on Monday, then the next pulse begins on Monday night, bringing around 5-10 cm snow with moderate to strong SW to NW winds. A few flurries or convective showers may continue on Tuesday. Freezing levels are around 2000 m, dropping by late Tuesday to around 1200 m.
Avalanche Summary
On Thursday and Friday, wind and warming were responsible for several natural slab avalanches up to size 3, mainly on east and north aspects above 2100 m. There was also a report of a close call, skier triggered size 2.5 slab avalanche in the Dogtooth range. A couple of small slabs were triggered on Saturday.
Snowpack Summary
New snow fell to around 1900-2100 m on Saturday, with rain at lower levels. Strong winds have formed wind slabs on lee slopes. The mid-March interface (crusts, old wind slabs, facets and surface hoar) is down around 60 cm. In snowpack tests, it is still giving moderate to heard, sudden results with propagation likely. The deeper mid-February layer has been dormant for some time; however in neighboring regions it has been reactive. Persistent weak layers may be suspect in shallower snowpack areas.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.