Persistent Slabs
- Alpine
- Treeline
- Below treeline
- Likelihood
- Likely
- Size
- 4
These are the kind of avalanche conditions that kill most snowmobilers and guaranteed, our snowpack is teetering on the edge.
So, here's the deal. We've got it all... big storm totals, massive water weight, and three days worth of raging west-southwest winds. And remember, all of this weight (and stress) is stacked on top of weak snow near the ground just waiting for us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath. This is the type of structure that is particularly dangerous because we don't even have to be on a steep slope in order to trigger a slide... we just need to be connected to it. Now here's where it gets tricky... we've got great coverage, the range is white, and the snowpack is gonna feel really strong and supportable. But we've gotta think not only about the snow we're riding in, but also the snow we're riding on, and right now it's a house of cards.
No matter how you cut it, this is the real deal and not the type of avalanche problem that we want to tangle with or try to outsmart. Today's avalanches could still potentially be triggered mid slope, low on the slope, or from a distance. Once initiated, they'll break deep and wide and could take out the entire seasons snowpack in some locations, resulting in a potentially unsurvivable slide. That's too much uncertainty for me to deal with so I'm keeping it simple... patience and avoidance are the only solution. I'm simply gonna ride low angle terrain in the sun and avoid being on or under steep, wind drifted slopes.
There's a lot of terrain to ride today and not have to deal with unmanageable avalanche conditions, IF you chose slopes that had NO old snow prior to the big Thanksgiving storm.
Our pit profile on a northwest facing slope near Wolf Creek Bowl. Pretty clear to see a defining line of strong snow resting on top of weak snow near the ground.
Yesterday, Bo and I stomped around near Wolf Creek Pass prior to our avalanche class Friday night and found our snowpit stability tests suggest a strengthening snowpack (good news), but failures continue to revolve around weak, basal snow (bad news). What this means is... it might be harder to initiate a slide, but the piece of snow you trigger will dangerously break to the ground.
