Avalanche forecast

Cariboos

Feb 19 – 20, 2012Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3
    New wind slabs are forming in exposed leeward terrain and may be susceptible to human triggering.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–4
    New snow may start to form a cohesive slab, especially where snowfall amounts are higher and winds are stronger. The size and likelihood of human triggered avalanches will increase throughout the forecast period.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

In general we should see unsettled conditions as a series of disturbances move across the province this week. Monday: Light to locally moderate snowfall - 5-10cm. Freezing level (FL) 800m. Winds light to moderate from the southwest. Tuesday: Light to locally moderate snowfall - 10-15cm. FL rising to 1200m. Winds increasing to moderate from the W-SW. Wednesday: The strongest pulse should arrive late on Tuesday and bring moderate to locally heavy precipitation into Wednesday. 15-30cm is possible. FL lowering to 800-1000m. Winds moderate from the SW.

Avalanche Summary

There is one new report of a Size 1 accidently triggered avalanche on a steep leeward (north) aspect in the alpine. Otherwise there have been no new reports.

Snowpack Summary

The new snow layer above the February 9 surface hoar is now about 15-35cm thick. This surface hoar layer may be widespread in some areas, while others have reported it being confined to shady aspects at treeline and in the alpine. Some thin windslab has developed as a result of SW winds Fri/Sat. A melt-freeze crust has developed on solar aspects at all elevations, and on all aspects below about 1600 metres. The mid-pack is generally well settled. There is some concern that large loads like cornices may trigger the Jan. 20th facet layer. Some shallow snowpack areas may continue to have a weak layer of basal facets near the ground.

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