Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Higher than reported snow totals from Monday's storm, and an increase in southerly winds overnight, have caused the avalanche danger to rise to CONSIDERABLE on steep, upper elevation, wind drifted slopes that face NW-N-E. Triggered wind drifts have the potential to step down into weak, sugary, faceted snow, and humantriggeredavalanches 2' - 4' deep are likely. Out of the wind zone, the avalanche danger is MODERATE. Stay conservative in your decision making and avoid steep, wind drifted slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Recent and wind drifted snow have begun to dangerously overload the layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow that comprises much of the snowpack. Slabs 2''-4' deep now exist on top of this weak snow. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche involving these persistent weak layers on steep, wind loaded, north through easterly facing slopes right around treeline, or in shallower, rocky areas in the alpine. Avoid likely trigger points such as steep convexities or thinner snowpack areas around rock outcroppings.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Southerly winds continue to blow and drift snow on to north through easterly facing aspects. New wind drifts overly old and many slopes are fat and loaded. Drifted slopes are recognizable by their smooth, rounded, or rippled appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. In these same areas, a triggered wind slab could step down into a buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Continue to avoid steep, wind loaded slopes.

Recent Activity

On Sunday, I and others observed this large natural avalanche in Red Snow Cirque. It likely ran Saturday afternoon or evening after an increase in southerly winds. Like other slides of late, it involved wind drifted snow over top of weak, faceted snow.

I also updated the report sent in by Casey Bateman with a photo of the natural avalanche that occurred in Exxon's Folley on Thursday.

Special Announcement

Road Conditions: Grand County plowed the road and parking lot on Monday. The surface is down to the dirt and will be muddy later in the day.

Grooming: LUNA packed out trails on Sunday but things were still a bit rough. A couple inches of snow have fallen since then.

UAC operating schedule - We will continue issuing regular avalanche forecasts into mid April.

Spring Awareness Campaign - The UAC counts on donations from the backcountry community. We know these are uncertain times and any donation during our awareness campaign will help us continue providing avalanche forecasting and education.

CDC Guidelines - Even in the backcountry and in parking lots, please follow CDC guidelines like limiting group size and keeping a distance of at least 6 feet from other people to protect yourself and others. Read the guidelines HERE.

Taking risks - Be extra conservative to avoid the risk of accidents which can stress the capacity of our medical system.

New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 22" Base Depth in Gold Basin 68" Wind SW 15-20 G40 Temp 27F

Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').

Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').

NWS weather forecast

Weather: It turns out that Monday's storm which produced only 3" in Gold Basin delivered a whopping 8"-12" up high! While I was down in the Abajos yesterday looking at a trace to 2", ace observer Dave Garcia went up to the La Sals and was duly rewarded for his efforts. Read his report here. SE winds overnight blew in the 20-30 mph range with gusts into the mid 40's. They'll continue today with similar speeds from the SW. Skies will be partly sunny and high temps will be in the upper 30's. The next storm moves in late Thursday into Friday. It's not looking too impressive at this time and will favor points north.

Snowpack: Recent and wind drifted snow has piled up on a fragile snowpack that in many areas is comprised largely of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Weak snow can be found on all aspects but the weakest snow exists on northerly facing slopes right around treeline and below. Alpine areas generally have a deeper and stronger snowpack, especially out in the middle of concave bowls. However, slope margins, wind-swept areas, and areas right around rocks, cliffs, or sub-ridges have a much thinner snowpack. Weak, faceted snow exists in these areas. The recent spate of natural and human triggered avalanches in the alpine have included areas of wind drifted snow that have propagated into areas with weak, faceted snow.

General Announcements

Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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