Abajos

The avalanche danger is LOW and generally stable snow conditions exist. Low danger doesn't mean no danger and it may still be possible to trigger an avalanche on steep, wind loaded slopes or in an area of rocky, more radical, northerly facing terrain that has an underlying weak snowpack. And, with warm temperatures on tap, be alert for loose wet activity on sun-exposed slopes later in the day. Practice safe travel protocol - only put one person on a slope at a time, and always carry appropriate rescue gear - beacon, probe, shovel, and know how to use it.

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Weather: Skies are clear and it's warm up there with overnight temps staying above freezing in many locations. Southerly winds started ramping up around 3:00 a.m. and will continue to average 20 mph along ridge tops with gusts in the 30's, a downgrade from yesterday's forecast. Skies will be sunny with high temps near 40F. Clouds and winds will increase tonight as a powerful storm system moves into the region. I fear it will be more huff and puff than fluff for us as once again we appear not to be on the favored storm track. Snow should begin sometime tomorrow morning with what looks to me like 2"-4" possible. Southwest winds will crank in the 30-35 mph range with gusts to 50.

Snowpack: It's a mixed bag out there right now but on Friday we were pleasantly surprised to find good, settled powder on an open, NE facing slope. Other slopes have a variety of wind and sun crusts and sheltered terrain is still your best bet for good snow.

Underneath, the snowpack is also variable. In most areas above about 10,500', the pack is deep and strong with a depth of 4'-5'. But sun and wind-exposed slopes, and rocky areas right around treeline and below have shallower and weaker snow. Whether or not these weaker snowpack areas become unstable will depend on future snow loads.

NWS Weather Forecast.

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')

Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')

Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.