Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 4th, 2012–Feb 5th, 2012

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Purcells.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

A firmly embedded ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the region bringing clear skies and light southerly winds throughout the forecast period. An inversion with above freezing alpine temperatures will persist on Sunday, but will give way to a gradual cooling pattern forecast for Monday and Tuesday.

Avalanche Summary

Since the recent warming, numerous large and destructive avalanches (to size 3.5) were reported in the region. Most of the avalanches were specific to south-facing alpine features. Some of these avalanches were initiated by cornice fall. Others were loose, wet avalanches that, in some cases, stepped down to basal weaknesses.

Snowpack Summary

The big story is the recent weather. Sun exposed slopes are becoming moist and cornices are weakening due to solar radiation and increased alpine temperatures.Wind slabs are also likely to be found on exposed areas at treeline, and into the alpine and storm slabs can be found at all elevations. They both seem to be settling out quickly, but still show sensitivity to rider triggers; especially on steeper slopes and convex rolls. Below this sits a fairly well settled mid-pack. There are, however, a few exceptions. The Jan. 13th SH/FC combo has been reactive. As well, the mid December facet/surface hoar layer is buried approx. 80 cm on the east side and 200+ cm on the west side and has been more reactive in the Purcells than any other region. There are also basal facets at the ground which will continue to remain a concern, especially in the thin snowpack parts of the region. In addition to more obvious cornice failure and loose wet snow movement due to current warming, any of the aforementioned weaknesses could become reactive producing large and destructive slab avalanches. Snowpack depths at 2000m sit near 2m deep.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.