Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The snowpack has been slowly growing over the past week thanks to unsettled weather and light accumulating snowfall. Corresponding with this growing snowpack comes increasing concerns for slab avalanches releasing on potential weak layers buried earlier in March. These potential avalanche problems are most notable at near and above treeline elevations where we have seen the best snow accumulations and previous wind-loading. At below treeline elevations, avalanche problems are more isolated, but the travel advice still warrants careful terrain and snowpack evaluation to identify potential features of concern. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The past week of unsettled weather has slowly added new snow and a building snowpack. Slabs are building over potential weak layers buried earlier in March. Uncertainty exists for just how reactive slab avalanches releasing on these potential March weak layers will be.  On Wednesday a skier triggered a small slab releasing on these March interfaces, and last weekend a skier triggered another small slab in extreme terrain that released in old old snow. The other area of concern for persistent slab avalanches is for some avalanche paths that ran in February leaving a weak bed surface that has now been refilled. This situation resulted in a close call back on 3/18. 

    3/18: A skier was caught by surprise by this persistent slab on Mt. Axtell.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    On Thursday, SW winds at 12,000ft averaged in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts into the 40's. Since mid-night, the wind has come down considerably. Keep an eye out for lingering wind slabs, primarily above treeline, and on a few more isolated terrain features at lower elevations. The most suspect areas for this avalanche problem are on the lee sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. 

    Example of a skier triggered windslab last weekend, that further stepped down into deeper weak layers as the avalanche ran.

Avalanche Discussion

The current storm didn't produce as previously forecasted. Overnight snow accumulations look to be about 1" at CBMR, 1 or 2" at Irwin, Schofield is showing .3SWE, and a morning report from the Opas Hut near Taylor Pass has 24hr totals of 5.5" and .35 SWE. Given these lower than expected snow accumulations, the avalanche danger will remain at MODERATE. Dry weather moves in for the weekend with a bump in northerly winds. With an end to new snow and the slow loading, persistent slab avalanche concerns will start to ease. However, we'll need to keep our eye on wind-loading and potential wet avalanche concerns as the sun comes out. 

If you dig back into observations from earlier in March, you'll see plenty of documentation for weak layer concerns as those interfaces were getting buried. We don't have a whole lot of real notable persistent slab avalanches observations to point from the last week, but we still have those weak layer concerns that we know are buried in the upper snowpack. The travel advice associated with MODERATE avalanche danger is spot on for these conditions. Evaluate the snow and terrain carefully and identify features of concern. With known persistent weak layers buried in the upper snowpack, don't be fooled if you travel around and don't see any obvious signs of instability. If you find yourself with uncertainty about the avalanche conditions, simply manage that uncertainty with simpler terrain choices. 

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