Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A SPECIAL AVALANCHE BULLETIN is in effect.  Prolonged snowfall since Friday has overloaded weak layers in the bottom of the snowpack, creating dangerous avalanche conditions.  Numerous large natural avalanches released yesterday at all elevations; some crossed roadways.    Destructive natural avalanches are possible today, especially if winds increase this afternoon or if snowfall exceeds forecasted amounts.   Avalanches can break wider than expected and run long distances.  Dog walkers and snow-angel-makers take note: even small, steep slopes near town can be dangerous to recreate on.  Cautious routefinding and conservative decision making are essential today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Dangerous persistent slab avalanches have been releasing naturally all week.   Avalanches are breaking 2 to 6+ feet thick, across entire start zones and producing destructive amounts of debris in their runouts. You can trigger avalanches while traveling on or below steep terrain.  They can also release naturally from windloading or snowfall.   The best way to reliably manage this problem is by traveling on slopes less than 30 degrees that don't connect to steeper terrain above.  Avalanche activity has been most common on the eastern half of the compass at all elevations, but you can trigger an avalanche on almost any aspect and elevation.  

    2/13: Large natural avalanche that snapped trees and crossed Cement Creek Road on Saturday afternoon.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Soft slabs breaking in the new snow may remain sensitive to human triggers on some steep terrain today.   Storm instabilities will be most common where winds are drifting or stiffening the recent snow at higher elevations.  Look for cracking underfoot or instabilities on small test slopes to identify the problem.   Shallow instabilities in the upper snowpack can trigger much larger persistent slabs; thus extra caution is warranted.    

    2/13: Fresh slab avalanche that broke in new and wind drifted snow

Avalanche Discussion

A brief lull in the storm yesterday morning offered just enough visibility for us to document extensive natural avalanche activity from Friday night.  We noted numerous slides that broke deep and wide at all elevations, from Whetstone to Gothic to Snodgrass to the Slate River.   Heavy snowfall yesterday afternoon and evening surely triggered more of the same, such as this large avalanche that snapped trees and crossed Cement Creek Road.   The rapid snow-loading fizzled out sooner than expected, ending around 10 p.m. last night; thus, the natural cycle has likely passed its peak.  With light snowfall and light  winds forecasted for today, we've lowered the danger to CONSIDERABLE.   If today's snow or winds exceed the forecast, the danger could rise to HIGH again.  If the weather stays on track, the likelihood of destructive natural avalanches will decrease.  They remain most concerning where this afternoon's gustier winds are drifting the snow.   

Human triggers can still easily get into trouble today on or below steep terrain.  Storm totals since Friday are impressive:  Up to 2 feet of snow in the Northwest Mountains (2.3" SWE) and up to 16" in the Southeast Mountains (1.4" SWE). The storm has overloaded several persistent weak layers in the bottom half of the snowpack.  Conditions are especially dangerous because avalanches on these layers have been propagating unusually wide distances and across terrain features.  They can be remotely triggered from a long distance away from the start zone and from below the slope.  In the deeper parts of the forecast area, you may not experience widespread signs of instability like earlier this year, but one collapse will bring down the whole slope.  With the AVALANCHE WARNING ending this morning, we've issued a SPECIAL AVALANCHE BULLETIN to draw attention to our exceptionally challenging conditions right now, which are ripe for an accident.  The full burial yesterday in the backcountry near the town of Vail or the three-person fatality near Silverton are examples of what could also happen in our back yard.    

Regions covered