Forecast new snow is expected to continue to develop storm slabs. Pockets of wind transported snow may deep and sensitive to human triggers.
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Cloud developing overnight with freezing levels dropping down to about 1400 metres. Light precipitation (about 5 mm total) starting in the early morning combined with moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing levels rising up to about 1700 metres during the day. Light precipitation overnight and Thursday morning resulting in 5-10 cm of new snow above about 1600 metres. Friday is expected to be very warm with clearing skies as the high pressure ridge re-builds.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches reported. Poor visibility due to rain and fog limited travel on Monday. I suspect that new storm slabs developed in the alpine, and rain may have resulted in loose wet releases below 2000 metres.
Snowpack Summary
The north of the region received up to 30 cm of new snow in the alpine and rain below about 2000 metres. The south of the region had closer to 5 cm in the alpine with a freezing level around 2000 metres. Strong westerly winds transported new snow into deep windlabs. This new storm snow is sitting above loose facetted snow and a melt-freeze crust that was buried in mid-February. The late-Jan crust/surface hoar layer (up to 100 cm deep) and the mid-January surface hoar (80-120 cm deep) are generally dormant, and chances of triggering these weaknesses have decreased.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.