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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 11th, 2018–Mar 12th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Freezing levels well above the mountain tops and sunny skies are intensely warming the snowpack, particularly around midday. Best to avoid areas with sun exposure, wind effect, and overhead avalanche terrain. Read our blog on the impact of warming.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Sunny, light southwesterly winds, alpine temperature 1 C, freezing level 2300 m.TUESDAY: Sunny, light southwesterly winds, alpine temperature 3 C, freezing level 2600 m.WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny, light southwesterly winds, alpine temperature 3 C, freezing level 2500 m.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous storm and wind slabs to size 2 were reported in the region, being triggered naturally and by explosives. They were on all aspects, 30 to 50 cm deep, and most often at alpine elevations. Small loose avalanches were also noted on solar aspects.The forecast warming and sunshine may wake up a deeper weak layer on steep south facing slopes resulting in large and destructive avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

20-30 cm of recent storm snow is settling rapidly with warm daytime temperatures. Expect moist snow on solar aspects and on all aspects up to 1400 m. This new snow is sitting on patchy surface hoar in parts of the region.Cornices are large and prone to failure with warm air temperatures and sunny skies.In the upper to mid snowpack, a surface hoar or facet layer buried mid-February is now 80 to 110 cm below the surface on sheltered northerly aspects.Deeper in the snowpack, the widespread mid-December and late November weak layers are composed of a combination of crusts and sugary facets which are down 200-300 cm. These layers have been dormant but may be awoken by the warm and sunny weather throughout the weekend or by a large trigger, such as a falling cornice.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.