Avalanche Forecast

West winds will slightly decrease but not let up on Saturday with mostly light snow showers much of the day expected along the west slopes and cooler temperatures. However alpine west winds and snow should begin to increase in the afternoon as the next system approaches.

Any wind slab from Friday seems likely to linger on Saturday. This is mostly likely on northwest to southeast slopes in the near and above treeline where snow from Friday will have been heaviest such as at Baker and Rainier. Watch for firm wind transported or hollow sounding snow. Wind slab from Friday may get covered by less cohesive snow Friday night making it harder to detect the underlying wind slab layer.

Storm slab may still be possible Saturday in any areas that had rapid accumulations of new snow with warming on Friday. Storm slab is generally shorter lived than wind slab but may last into Saturday along the west slopes in the near and above tree line.

Be prepared to change your plans if the next storm begins to arrive and significant snow begins to accumulate sooner than expected on Saturday afternoon.

In most of the lower part of the below treeline band there is still insufficient snow for avalanches but watch for early season hazards such as terrain traps, rocks and creeks. The shallowest snow is at pass level at Stevens, Snoqualmie and White Passes.

Weather Discussion for the Cascade West Slopes

A bit of a break was seen Thursday with snow showers west of the crest generally tapering with 1-2 more inches common along the west slopes ending Friday morning but with 5 inches at Paradise.

A front is crossing the area on Friday causing moderate to strong south to west alpine winds in the Olympics and Washington Cascades, several inches or better of new snow along the west slopes and a warming trend.

Recent Reports for the Cascade West Slopes

Generally stable conditions were indicated by reports Wednesday and Thursday.

NWAC pro-observer Lee Lazzara was on the west side of Mt Baker on Thursday up to about 5300 feet. He found 35 cm of right side up recent snow and saw no signs instability. Compression tests were negative for a wind layer within the recent snow. He could see some wind effects at higher elevations.

Reports from the Stevens pro patrol and from NWAC pro-observer Dallas at Stevens on Thursday also indicated generally stable, well bonded, right side up snow conditions.

The weather on Friday brought a change to the previous couple days.

NWAC pro-observer Simon Trautman was in the Bagley Lakes area near Mt Baker on Friday and at about 5000 feet found dangerous new wind slab conditions due to winds, new snow and the warming trend. He reported a very reactive easy to trigger 15-25 cm new wind slab giving cracking to 2-4 feet and up to 20-30 feet where the new wind slab was deeper. Low visibility prevented skiing in avalanche terrain.

Wind slab layer in a snow pit on Blueberry Hill in the Mt Baker back country on Friday. Photo by Simon Trautman.

The Alpental pro-patrol on Friday reported rain soaking into the snowpack in the below treeline band. They reported a small 2 foot climax avalanche on a rock slab due to the rain and warm temperatures.