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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 10th, 2015–Dec 11th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

The places you are going to find the best riding conditions in the wake of the storm are probably the same places where the danger from a layer of buried surface hoar is greatest.

Confidence

Low - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

The next few storms are tracking to the south and are going to largely miss the Northwest regions. FRIDAY: flurries, light southwest wind, freezing level valley floor SATURDAY: isolated flurries, light east winds, freezing level valley floor. SUNDAY: clear, moderate northwest winds.  Freezing level valley floor.

Avalanche Summary

The layer of buried surface hoar is my biggest concern.  It is probably widespread and is reaching a burial depth that was associated with a rash of skier and remotely triggered avalanches in the deeper snowpack around Terrace last weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 60cms of settled snow now sits upon a layer of buried surface hoar.  This layer has the potential for remote triggering and wide propagations.  It is likely to be lurking in most sheltered areas at tree-line although I suspect it extends well into the alpine.  Variable winds are loading lee features. Below 1500m heavy rains have likely saturated the snow pack and may have formed a new rain crust.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.