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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2013–Jan 17th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tonight and Thursday: Light to moderate snowfall Wednesday and Thursday nights / Strong to extreme west winds / Freezing level at 800mFriday: Light snowfall / Moderate west winds /  Freezing level at 800mSaturday: Dry conditions with overcast skies / Light to moderate west winds / Freezing level at 1200m

Avalanche Summary

On Monday a size 2 windslab avalanche was skier-triggered in a chute above Crater Lake. The crown was about 30m wide with a maximum height of 80cm. On Tuesday a snowmobiler triggered a size 1 windslab on a slope which was reported to be "normally very stable". Reports suggest that the recent strong winds will be responsible for ongoing windslab activity.

Snowpack Summary

On the surface there are signs of recent intense northwest winds in the alpine and at treeline leaving scoured areas and hard windslabs on lee side of ridges and terrain breaks.  A surface hoar layer that was buried at the end of December is now down 60-80 cm, and has become reactive in some areas with recent warming. An otherwise strong mid-pack overlies a weak base layer of facets/depth hoar and the remnants of a crust.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.