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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2016–Jan 14th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Storm slabs continue to develop with each pulse of new snow and wind. Expect storm slabs and pockets of wind transported snow to continue to be easy to trigger.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Another 3-5 cm of new snow combined with moderate southwest winds overnight as the freezing levels drop back to valley bottoms. Flurries or periods of light snow on Thursday combined with moderate northwest winds and alpine temperatures around -5. Some flurries expected on Friday with a chance of broken skies in the afternoon; winds light southwest and alpine temperatures around -10. Increasing southwest winds on Saturday with increased cloud and some flurries or light snow.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. Expect natural storm snow avalanche cycle occurred today. Storm snow may continue to be easy to trigger, and avalanche size may increase with continued storm loading.

Snowpack Summary

Another 5-15 cm of new snow was recorded by Wednesday morning. The recent storm snow total is now 10-25 cm. that is sitting on recent surface hoar and near surface facets. Some operations reported a thin freezing drizzle crust on the snow surface before the Wednesday morning snow arrived. New building storm slabs and isolated wind slabs overlie old surfaces including surface hoar, facets, and possible sun crusts on steep southerly aspects. Below this, the upper pack is mostly drying out (through faceting). In general, the mid and lower snowpack are strong, with any weak layers considered dormant for now. Snowpack depths are variable and shallow snowpack areas may have weak facetted crystals near the ground.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.