Travel conservatively and with a sense of caution, as buried weak layers may persist in the snowpack. You may also find wet snow, which could be touchy.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, light southeast wind, alpine temperature -1 C, freezing level 2200 m.SUNDAY: Mix of sun and clouds with isolated flurries, accumulation trace to 5 cm, light southeast wind, alpine temperature -2 C, freezing level 2000 m.MONDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, light southwest wind, alpine temperature -2 C, freezing level 1800 m.TUESDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, light southwest wind, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1600 m.
Avalanche Summary
Many wet loose avalanches were observed between last Sunday and Friday. They were large (up to size 3), occurred mostly on southeast to southwest aspects, and at all elevations. Many of these avalanches scoured to basal weaknesses. A notable deep persistent slab avalanche released on Wednesday, likely triggered by a cornice fall. It was 100 cm deep on a northeast aspect at 2900 m.The wet avalanche cycle will likely diminish this weekend as cooler and cloudier weather prevails.
Snowpack Summary
A melt-freeze crust is found on the snow surface everywhere except for northerly aspects above 2000 m, where dry snow still prevails. The crust may weaken into moist or wet snow at low elevations or on southerly aspects, depending on daytime warming and cloud cover.Deeper in the snowpack, a weak layer of faceted grains buried 40 to 60 cm may still exist on northerly aspects above 2000 m. The base of the snowpack is composed of weak faceted snow, which may be associated with a melt-freeze crust. Although these layers have been dormant for a while now, there were recent reports of a few sporadic avalanches, suggesting that they could still be triggered.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.