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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

May 3rd, 2014–May 4th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

The snowpack is best described as "upside down" right now. Conditions will improve as it cools, but for now the warm snow is problematic at low elevations. Ski quality is probably pretty good at the upper elevations.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

More snow is on the way. The main front has passed, but our forecast still shows 6cm's over night with a few more coming starting tomorrow afternoon. The winds will be from all directions, but mostly light with the occasional gust in the alpine. Freezing levels will reach 2050m tomorrow. Snow depth at Burstall Pass is 226cm's and 135cm's at the road.

Avalanche Summary

None observed, however skies have been obscured. There has undoubtedly been avalanche activity on steeper alpine slopes.

Snowpack Summary

20cm's of new snow at Burstall Pass in the last 24hrs. This came in warm and gradually cooled as the storm progressed. We can expect there to be some moderate wind transport and new slabs in lee features. The moist snow underneath was insulated by the new snow so the storm snow bond will improve very quickly. In the meantime, this new storm snow/storm slab will likely be reactive until the snow temperature balances.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.