Right now the treeline area will be the most effected by the new snow. Lots of whumphing and settlements reported lately! The weight of the new snow is a big consideration for avalanche initiation.
Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Weather Forecast
A front will be passing through late tonight and into tomorrow. The winds will precede the precipitation with wind speeds into the extreme range(115km/hr) at ridgetop. Even Valley bottom winds will pick up to moderate levels. The snow will peak tomorrow around noon and drop a whole 6cm's. The temperature trend will be a split. Alpine temps will cool and valley bottom will warm at the same time. Temperatures are generally going to rise as the week goes on. HS@mud lake 65, HS@Burstall Pass 82
Avalanche Summary
Several natural avalanches were noted today in the alpine. They followed the pattern from last week's cycle: steep, N-E facing alpine terrain below cliffs.
Snowpack Summary
The cold temps have started to facet the new snow from last week. There are some pockets of storm/wind slab associated with this snow, but for the most part the wind has'nt had a huge effect on the new snow. The mid pack is weak in all locations/elevations. The Oct. crust was found during today's snow study mission, but only in one of two profiles- these profiles were 20m apart! The variability in the snow pack is impressive right now to say the least.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.