Be aware of the "low probability high consequence" scenario in the alpine. Things are much better as a whole, but the alpine still deserves some caution. Don't forget to cover up and bring some extra tea to help cope with the -40 windchill!
Weather Forecast
Cold. This predicted arctic front is expected to arrive tonight. But, our models suggest the temps may not be as cold as first predicted. The winds will be light to moderate which will amplify the cold. Wind chill could be as low as -40. The good news is that the skies will remain clear and the sun has enough power to take the edge off the cold.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were noted toady.
Snowpack Summary
The winds have shifted in the last 24hrs signalling the arrival of the cold air. The alpine snowpack has noticeably more wind effect today than yesterday. The existing windslabs have not seen a significant change, but the alpine has isolated pockets of reverse loaded windslabs can be added to the list of potential trouble layers near the surface. The real story is still the Feb 10th layer and its tricky nature. In most places the bond has significantly improved, but in certain terrain features that bond can be easily broken. Its a tough layer to trust right now. Lately the Oct 1027 crust/depth hoar has fallen off the radar. Its is worth reiterating that the basal layers are still considered weak and remain on our radar. Especially as the upper layers settle, facet or blow away, potentially exposing weak and thin spots. We've seen settlement rates of 5-10 cm's in the snow depths. Burstall Pass snow depth is 156cms.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.